I fully understand that you don't "share that analysis" and you'll quickly see that your reasoning for not sharing is totally irrelevant.
It's not a matter of What you or I think. It is a matter of what is thought by the people who are opposed to gay equality. I'm basing my analysis on A. their actions in the past and B. the current tone of their rhetoric. I will follow up with some examples of it.
So these words of yours have no relevancy in this discussion. "The LGBT movement is unprecedented in both its effectiveness and time (literally moving from illegal sodomy laws to probable marriage equality in a couple decades)."
And you are mistaken about it being a couple of decades. The first notable push for gay equality/marriage began four decades ago in the early 1970s. At that time in the US there were a few churches and ministers bold enough to perform marriages for homosexuals. I attended weddings then and married my first mate in 1974 in Miami.
But all of that is irrelvant. All that is relevant is as I have said above,
1. What they have done in the past.
2. What they say they intend to do in the future.
Here's a link from a posted thread here in RJ not more than an hour old. The Klan out of Mississippi is making a call for violence over legalized marriage for gays in Alabama.
Do you know who Scott Lively is? He's a minister who wrote "The Pink Swastika" in which he propagandizes that gays were partners with Hitler. It's a widely read and popular book amongst fundamentalists and is in its 5th printing in 10 years, available on Amazon for $14, and can be borrowed from thousands of church libraries nationwide. Lively is the man who first exported anti gay christianity to Uganda and helped them writing their laws criminalizing it. He's consulted with other nations in Africa as well as help Vadmir Putin of Russia institute his anti gay laws.
Search for Pink Triangle, Scott Lively.
Have you heard of Bryan Fischer? Besides being a buddy of Lively, he runs the Mississippi based American Family Association's radio programming and is host of "focal point" AFA and The Family Research Council have been declared a hate group by both SPLC and the Pentagon because of Fischer's programs. On air, speaking on gay marriage, Fischer has said it will be settled "by ballots or bullets."
Here's a link to a video about AFA, Fischer. Scott Lively, The Pink Swastika and the words "ballots or bullets" out of his own mouth. The video starts with how Fox News covered it. Listen to it so you will be fully enraged when you hear the truth.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qyyFP4601Q
Here's how it was reported on CBN the Christian Broadcast Network.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=usTaYWuoJeA
What these mean and men like them are telling their believers is all that is relevant.
Again, for a third time, you brought up Obama supporting gay equality and try to say he has always been in spite of the well documented fact that he's spoken against it as often as he's spoken for it. Then you want to accuse me of having deafs ears? In any case what Obama supports and doesn't is irrelevant in this.
You are too young to remember bombings and torching of gay bars, homes and businesses in the 1970s and 80s. You may remember the Atlanta lesbian bar bombed by Eric Rudolf. Before the deaths of Mathew Shepard and Billy Jack Gaither I personally knew over a dozen men who were killed for being gay and not one of their murderers was convicted of more than manslaughter. Most were declared not guilty. You're asking questions about how and where they will strike and your questions are irrelevant. Even your inability to understand that these people can and will resort to violence is irrelevant.