it IS bad out there

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jan 27, 2009 7:31 PM GMT
    I was laid off at the end of November and I have to say I am glad I no longer work at that job. I decided that I was going to take December off and relax over the holidays. This month I've been looking here and there. I have about another month before my finances get strained.

    I went to a job fair today at the Texas Workforce Commission. The parking lot is huge and the building rivals most shopping strips. That being said there was no parking and a line that I'd estimate to over 100 people. Several cars were just circling the parking lot hoping to find a place to park.

    With the fair only being three hours and the temperature being 40 degrees on a wet rainy dreary day I opted to forgo the fair. Mistake? Maybe. But I'd rather not get sick and not working.
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    Jan 27, 2009 7:58 PM GMT
    The medical field is thriving. If you get desperate, then you might want to consider a career change. Nursing, x-ray technicians, whatever other technicians that are needed in hospitals.
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    Jan 27, 2009 10:11 PM GMT
    Welcome to 2009 everyone. Our Job Classfied in the paper has dropped by at least 60%, if not more. Even the Medical field has dried up, but is still wonderful if you want to be a maid in a hotel or a busboy.in a restaurant..icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Jan 27, 2009 10:14 PM GMT

    Move to Dubai... but you have to give up some of your rights.
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    Jan 27, 2009 11:06 PM GMT
    animanimus saidthe last time i went through typical channels (the classified), a few years after the s&l recession circa 1980s, i had just switched careers from construction to publishing.


    I'm a LITTLE concerned as well being that I am in Commercial Construction Mgmt
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    Jan 27, 2009 11:48 PM GMT
    It's not odd to me that every time energy prices spike, a recession is not far behind. There is a cause and effect. Why do they spike? Growth, greed, arrogance, perhaps. Nonetheless, until policy changes, more of the same. i.e. if you have investments, protect them future forward.

    I cite both energy spikes in the early 70's and early 80's - oil embargoes and IRAN hostage crisis among others, again in the early 90's... remember IRAQ 1?, and again in the early 2000's. Recession followed. Every time. Regardless of their cause or other events. Again, in 2008, prices spiked really bad! Other circumstances are involved. BUT the result is still the same. RECESSION!

    I won't even pretend to discuss why, it's not important to the average investor... I'm not an economist or politician. But my observation is valid - energy spikes... recession follows. That's real value for everyone. Economics are far more complex, but I am suggesting that better energy management and policy will help smooth things out. But that alone won't stop future trouble. I have no solution to that.

    I'm affected by this economy, but not nearly to the degree as some. I don't own a home, so I am not faced with declining equity or value. I have tiny debt. Only my retirement account took a small hit. -3.16% for last year. No money lost on CD's or regular savings of course. I ended up moving 80% of my balances into fixed value/income accounts one year ago at the height of the energy spike. Pay attention!

    The collapse or significant correction of energy pricing would normally signal a recovery is on the way as in each of the examples I cited above... but with so many other problems... I doubt anytime soon. I stand pat. From an investment view. The thing is, when things start to recover, move investments around into stocks and commodities... and if energy spikes, move it back into fixed value. It's been working good for me. I ain't rich, but retirement isn't something I'm worried about.
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    Jan 28, 2009 12:23 AM GMT
    Target just laid off 600 employees today. An unprecedented move for them. I'm just glad that I have a job still.
  • farfle

    Posts: 105

    Jan 28, 2009 12:56 AM GMT
    justinono saidI'm affected by this economy, but not nearly to the degree as some. I don't own a home, so I am not faced with declining equity or value. I have tiny debt. Only my retirement account took a small hit. -3.16% for last year. No money lost on CD's or regular savings of course. I ended up moving 80% of my balances into fixed value/income accounts one year ago at the height of the energy spike. Pay attention!

    I ain't rich, but retirement isn't something I'm worried about.


    Will you marry me? icon_lol.gif
  • gumbosolo

    Posts: 382

    Jan 28, 2009 3:40 AM GMT
    Luckydog and I are reading the same newspaper. I just found a job in New Orleans after four months of steady hunting, and no thanks to the classifieds. I'm lucky I found a good job; I would have taken anything. I think a lot of desperate people will be taken advantage of in the next while.

    Good luck, Growingbig.
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    Jan 31, 2009 11:55 PM GMT
    Oh yeah I meant to show this graph. Note the BIG spikes historically - when the price of oil more than doubles during one year. When that has occurred, BAM! Of course, oil had peaked last year, and tripled in price over the course of a year, and now we are in full blown gut wrenching recession.

    oil_threat.jpg

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    Feb 01, 2009 12:16 AM GMT
    Make sure your list of professional contacts are current and that they know you're looking for work. Don't be afraid to call old co-workers, vendors, clients... anyone...

    Also... can you do contract/consulting work?? I think that is what I'll do when I get laid off.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Feb 01, 2009 2:28 AM GMT
    animanimus said


    the thing about being right 6 out of 6 times, is what happens when you miss calling the 7th.

    by the above graph, it looks like crude spiked about 10 years before the recession of 1929, so how's that fit into your theory? the 1953 recession? oil peaked about 4-5 years before that. let's see, the recession of 1957? nope, no spike there either. the recession of 1960 perhaps? not only wasn't oil peaking, it was already on the downslide. the oil crisis recession of 1973, ooops, the peak came after the fact. would have been tough to judge that without a time machine.


    ----------

    My point was to note when oil doubled (oil shock / crisis) in price during the course of a year, regardless of when the peak occurred... recession is directly associated and did follow. For a list of recessions and when they occurred, please refer to Wikipedia or official sources.

    In the graph I presented, which reflects in shaded bars when the recession occurred, which reflects the peak in the price of oil, the recession occurred concurrent with or after the peak. It does so in an accurate, adequate and simply way.

    To correct you:

    1. The price of energy was not a good way to measure the onset of recession prior to the 60's, because our economy was not dependent upon foreign oil. We began importing in earnest during the 60's.

    2. The graph that you presented shows odd years along the bottom with no grid, and no reference to recession as it would lay over the the price of oil. Looking at the graph you presented, one would not be able to see the cause and effect. The graph you presented is insufficient and lacking.

    3. Oil peaked in 1973. The recession started in 1973 and ended in 1975. This was not an "ooops..." It looks like you read the graph you presented wrong.

    There were other recessions not related to the price of energy. DUH.

    For the average person, who can see the price of energy double in a short period of time, you can take steps to protect investment, because the economy does and will tank. Unless you are an insider, most people don't have a tried and true measure to go by. My observation provides those who do not have a clue that they can use to protect themselves in a real way.

    Unless energy policy and politics change, and angels with trumpets and harps descend upon the Earth, you can rest assured the next time oil doubles in price (oil shock) in less than a year, a recession will follow.

    For truly boring reading, but wholly backing up my point, you may refer to this study: http://pzl1.ed.ornl.gov/IAEE_2002_oil_macro_paper_rev2.pdf



  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Feb 01, 2009 4:22 AM GMT
    Anim-

    As a result of my point, I have saved precipitous falls in my investment accounts and come out ahead. I have advised twice previously to the benefit of my friends and family. I can share that wisdom. It works.

    I am not going to waste time correcting or arguing with you. Your attempt to discredit is off-base. You don't get it, at all. FAIL!

    Gross. I feel a weird, less than lukewarm sense of being "flamed."

    Your apparent attempt at "assassinating" my point only drives me to continue providing useful information that works.

    *flings off the spaghetti splatter*

    *was enjoying RJ*
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Feb 01, 2009 5:09 AM GMT
    In error, again:

    7. Summary: the current state of knowledge about oil price-GDP relationships

    First, the most thorough research to date has found that post-shock recessionary movements of GDP are
    largely attributable to the oil price shocks, not to monetary policy.

    READ the link. YOU FAIL!

    Again, people hurt when they may not have information that can help them.

    You just don't get it... stop harassing me.

    It was inevitable I guess. Sigh.


  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Feb 01, 2009 5:38 AM GMT
    DONE. What link? Grrrrrr icon_evil.gif

    Gosh, oil shock, recession... save your investments. It's real. This person amin- doesn't offer anything at all except to argue with me and not help. I try. Flamed by someone who wants to be a flamer and I gave into it. RUBBISH.

    It is tough. The OP and many others note their difficulties and I wish all of you speedy success icon_biggrin.gif
  • HndsmKansan

    Posts: 16311

    Feb 01, 2009 6:09 PM GMT
    Well I hope things go well and that things don't get desperate.....

    My mind immediately went to those people who HAVE done everything, waited in long lines, worked hard immediately to get their resume in at every possible employer and worked the people they know to find a potential job opening..... and no luck.

    Of course it depends on the location as to what will yield results as well.
    I hope everyone whos "shopping" for a new job can find one without things really getting bad.
  • gumbosolo

    Posts: 382

    Feb 02, 2009 3:25 AM GMT
    Every day since I got my current job (about a week ago) someone has come in looking. I wouldn't quit for them, but I feel bad for them. And having looked so long, I don't know what to recommend to them. I don't mind the challenges-- they're fun-- but I don't like having to be so mercenary.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Feb 02, 2009 3:30 AM GMT
    Grad school is sounding better and better.....
  • ueatzit

    Posts: 174

    Feb 02, 2009 3:40 AM GMT
    Matterych saidGrad school is sounding better and better.....


    Yes...and happily it has given my bf and I advanced degrees but now that I'm about to graduate I'm sweating finding a position. It is very disheartening that I will graduate soon and am depressed about having to take a job I could have easily gotten before I got an education. In my field you can "go stale" if you don't continue your career after graduation so I'm frightening about being shot down right out of the gate. Plus there are two of us involved, we're both career oriented guys and my potential employment locations would be out of state thus that adds a layer of complexity to our future.

    One thing I will say is that graduate degrees have made us more marketable for specialized positions. I am glad that most of what I'm looking at isn't something the "generalist" job seeker can reasonably compete for. If you can do it, now would be a good time to get in to a program, but with budgets shrinking everywhere, even the ivory tower of academia, be aware that programs might only get more difficult to get in to.

    It IS bad out there. Apply early, apply often, be aggressive. With so many qualified people clamoring for a smaller number of available positions, one will not have something handed to them on a platter!
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    Feb 02, 2009 3:53 AM GMT
    The IT market in Dallas is in the shitter and I can't beg for work right now.
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    Feb 02, 2009 4:16 AM GMT
    There is an air of quiet desperation as the situation grows progressively worse, and there is intense debate on when and how to break it to the public. They are not even sure what exactly to break because the situation is so fluid. No one wishes to be the messenger and possibly be blamed for inciting a loss of confidence.

    Wall Street and the banking system has been every bit as irresponsible and out of control as we thought in our worst moments, perhaps more. A group of twenty somethings with little or no adult supervision developed ideas for 'financial products' with the same care and planning that their counterparts perform extreme stunts on Youtube.

    They did it because they could. They tested the system for boundaries and didn't find any.

    You want leverage? Imagine a 20 billion dollar portfolio of mortgage backed securities with a capital base of $10k, literally 2 million-fold leverage. Imagine the shock of the inventor as he watches as his successors expand similar portfolios up to $900 billion.

    After running out of gullible Japanese bankers these cowboys began trolling for other pools of gullible buyers: hedge funds, pension funds, and University endowments sufficed. They even found some local suckers. Anything to make a sale and keep the money machine turning.

    How did we go so far off the tracks?

    Greed.