Jul 07, 2015 10:09 PM GMT
Jeb Bush is boasting about his economic success as governor. But he owes a large amount of that success — well more than half, at least — to the housing bubble that popped as he was leaving office, leaving Florida in deep and prolonged recession.
...missing a huge caveat: A significant amount of Florida's economic and job growth in the Bush era was driven by a massive run-up in housing prices — which peaked in Bush's last year in office, then plunged the state into a worse recession than the nation as a whole...
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush says he can deliver 4% annual economic growth as president – about twice as fast as the U.S. has been growing recently. Why is he so confident? During his 1999-2007 tenure as governor, Florida grew 4.4%, his campaign boasts.
Today it even unveiled a cute graphic illustrating the claim.
The trouble is, say some economists, Gov. Bush’s Florida growth record was based in large part on a housing bubble – national in scope but particularly frothy in Florida — that exploded the year he left office in 2007. Wells Fargo economist Mark Vitner, who has studied the Florida economy since the 1980s, estimates that the housing bubble accounted for about one-fourth of Florida’s growth during Mr. Bush’s tenure.
Jeb Bush is boasting about his economic success as governor. But he owes a large amount of that success -- well more than half, at least -- to the housing bubble that popped
Jeb running on economy fueled by housing bubble
...everyone knows that Florida’s strong growth from 1999 through 2006, his years as governor, was fueled by a housing bubble, even zanier here than in most other states. Fortuitously, the bubble slowed and then burst as Jeb left office, plunging Florida deep into recession.
To gain a longer perspective, consider the years from 1999 through 2014. Florida’s real GDP per person rose by 3 percent. That’s 3 percent total, not per year. Over the same period, U.S. real GDP per person rose by more than 14 percent. If U.S. real GDP per person had been as torpid as Florida’s, the nation would be 10 percent below where it is today.
Now that statement is simplified, omitting Florida’s rapid retiree population growth. But even so, Jeb’s Florida fails as a model for the nation.