Pacific Northwest and the big one or the really big one

  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 4:42 AM GMT
    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 5:29 AM GMT
    I'm pretty high up on a mountain overlooking Vancouver. Maybe I'll get my dream of living on an ocean-front property one day! With my luck I'll probably be biking along the Stanley Park sea wall when it happens though. Sigh.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 6:57 AM GMT
    Well, shit.icon_neutral.gif

    In other news, all of us on the West Coast have to be ready for Yellowstone to blow...
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 10:48 AM GMT
    no time like the present then to have as much fun and sex as possible!icon_lol.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 11:21 AM GMT
    CFL_Oakland saidWell, shit.icon_neutral.gif

    In other news, all of us on the West Coast have to be ready for Yellowstone to blow...


    According to this a NWP tsunami is a lot more likely than a Yellowstone supervulcano eruption.
  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14342

    Jul 14, 2015 1:15 PM GMT
    The entire Pacific Ring of Fire is due for "the big one" not just the west coast of the U.S.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 1:37 PM GMT
    I'm pretty shocked at how unprepared they are in terms of building/retrofit codes, disaster preparedness, etc.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 3:38 PM GMT
    roadbikeRob saidThe entire Pacific Ring of Fire is due for "the big one" not just the west coast of the U.S.


    My guess is there are other areas of US less prepared:

    http://www.kgw.com/story/weather/blog/2014/12/16/new-madrid-earthqake/20502139/
  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14342

    Jul 14, 2015 4:27 PM GMT
    desertmuscl said
    roadbikeRob saidThe entire Pacific Ring of Fire is due for "the big one" not just the west coast of the U.S.


    My guess is there are other areas of US less prepared:

    http://www.kgw.com/story/weather/blog/2014/12/16/new-madrid-earthqake/20502139/
    And other parts of the world as well.
  • Muscmasmat

    Posts: 124

    Jul 14, 2015 5:13 PM GMT
    Very interesting article. Thanks for sharing.

    For sure, it is very difficult to weigh potential catastrophic loss of life and property versus the incredibly immense cost for retrofitting, moving or abandoning existing infrastructure.

    I was just in Anchorage Alaska and got to see examples of the trees killed by salt water when the land dropped 6 feet during the 1964 earthquake.

    I live 1/2 mile east of I5, so might have an ocean front view if:

    (a). I'm not killed when my condo collapses (middle floor of a 3 floor building built in 1973 before earthquake guidelines).

    (b). I don't slide into Lake Washington (1/2 mile east) due to being on glacial silt that will liquefy during a major earthquake

    (c). I am not killed by the resulting eruptions of Mt. Rainier and Cascade Peak volcanoes to the southeast and northeast respectively during a cataclysmic earthquake.

    Oh, well. I guess I'll just enjoy the cool weather, beautiful trees, mountains, nearby ocean and lakes while I can.

  • metta

    Posts: 39104

    Jul 14, 2015 8:35 PM GMT
    MuchMoreThanMuscle saidDang, I live in the Seattle area.

    Gulp! icon_eek.gif


    are you east or west of interstate 5?
  • metta

    Posts: 39104

    Jul 14, 2015 8:37 PM GMT
    freedomisntfree saidI'm pretty shocked at how unprepared they are in terms of building/retrofit codes, disaster preparedness, etc.


    It sounds like, West of Interstate 5, they should not have built anything there in the first place.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 9:07 PM GMT
    MuchMoreThanMuscle saidDang, I live in the Seattle area.

    Gulp! icon_eek.gif


    I'm in Tacoma need a summary of the long article lol
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 9:51 PM GMT
    The author basically cribbed the standard DOGAMI tsunami brochure and added a bunch of hyperbole. It's simply not true to say that there isn't any warning system. There is. Evacuation routes are clearly marked. School kids have drills. Building codes and zoning laws have been updated for decades. (You should see some of the seismic crap I had to add to my foundation, and I'm well outside the earthquake zone.) Of course, most buildings were put up before those codes were beefed up. Old buildings get retrofitted if they get remodeled, but it would probably take a century or two to retrofit everything at that rate. (The Port of Portland is going to be a real mess when all the petroleum tanks collapse.) The state has already spent billions to upgrade freeway over-passes and bridges.

    Also not clear from the article is that the tsunami inundation zone is very small compared to the earthquake risk zone. The Oregon coast is nothing like the east coast, where they've built hurricane-bait neighborhoods right out onto the beaches - there is nothing built on the beach here. The coast range mountains rise right up from the beach (where there is a beach) so most towns are up on the cliffs. The areas at risk are the bay-fronts, which includes several historic town centers. No tsunami is going to go anywhere near I-5. It's a hundred miles away.

    The reason that this stuff is hitting the news now is that OSU (the employer of the guy behind the article) is planning to put up a new classroom building at the Marine Science Center in Newport. Right on the bay. This building pushes up against the limits of the tsunami building codes (it wouldn't be allowed in Japan) because it could contain up to 500 people at a time. And there isn't really any good evacuation route out of there. Goldfinger wants them to build an all-new campus, instead, away from the bay. As if there were any money for that. But... even if there were funds, you couldn't really put the docks anywhere else.

    It's actually kind of a nightmare spot tsunami-wise. The marine science center is at the bottom of this photo. All those boats in the marina at the top will become projectiles. Not to mention the ships at the docks (or the commercial fishing fleet and freighter docks across the bay, in the opposite direction of the photo.)

    18320162-mmmain.jpg

    There is some talk of trying to make the new building a tsunami-proof tower, but nobody is really sure how to do that, and there probably isn't money for that either.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 14, 2015 9:52 PM GMT
    When I lived near Seattle there was always talk about Mt. Rainer popping its cork. A main concern was the snow cap melting suddently, with predicted catastrophic flood paths if the water came rushing down into residential areas. Sort of like a dam bursting.

    Also when I lived there some modest earthquakes hit east of me in Woodinville. But enough to crack the foundation on the house basement, which I didn't see behind the finished walls. Not until we had some heavy rains a month later, and a flood of water came in and damaged that entire level, that included many of my photos and other mementos. icon_sad.gif
  • jeepguySD

    Posts: 651

    Jul 15, 2015 12:21 AM GMT
    CFL_Oakland saidWell, shit.icon_neutral.gif

    In other news, all of us on the West Coast have to be ready for Yellowstone to blow...


    I think if Yellowstone erupts as a super volcano it will be a much bigger problem for the Midwest and Southwest. The Jetstream will likely carry the ejecta southeast. Based on previous super-eruptions, Yellowstone will not affect most of the West Coast, except possibly Southern California.

    http://volcanoes.usgs.gov/volcanoes/yellowstone/yellowstone_hazard_45.html
  • metta

    Posts: 39104

    Jul 15, 2015 1:53 AM GMT
    ^

    Yes, that is of course true...that will effect many states....but hopefully many....many thousands/millions of years from now. And by then, hopefully we will have found a way to stop it from erupting ahead of time.

    MuchMoreThanMuscle said
    metta8 said
    MuchMoreThanMuscle saidDang, I live in the Seattle area.

    Gulp! icon_eek.gif


    are you east or west of interstate 5?


    I'm two to three very long blocks west of the I5.

    icon_cry.gif


    Well, if you rent, you might want to consider moving to the other side of Interstate 5 when your lease is up.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Jul 15, 2015 5:19 AM GMT
    Well, if you live in sleazattle, living east of Die-Five won't help you. There is evidence of a tsunami in Lake Washington during the last big one. But that was just due to landslides and pine trees falling into the lake. This time, Bill Gates' ego will tip in icon_eek.gif
  • HottJoe

    Posts: 21366

    Jul 15, 2015 6:42 PM GMT
    I guess if you hear a lot of dogs barking, start running.icon_eek.gif
  • mstone18

    Posts: 84

    Jul 17, 2015 3:12 AM GMT
    Never been a better time to take up the Sport of Ballooning from your own backyard.

    The Helium kind.. not the ones full of hot air.

    Makes a ridiculous kind of common sense.. In Tornado Alley we have to worry about digging underground shelters. At the edge of the country we have to worry about reaching for the Sky.

    From one extreme to the other..

    Of course the further North you are.. the cooler the air and the denser the atmosphere and the less the Helium or hot air you need. A lot more compact than a plane, and durable than a tank of fuel for the long hall. The "anti-emergency" shelter "in place" shelter.. its the "get the hell outta here" shelter.

    Then again, even if it sprung a leak..everyone could go down laughing sounding like Donald Duck.

    Hmm.. even if Yosemite erupted.. you might have a chance to surf the Wind storm Eastward.. displacing air with stone ash should drive a pressure wave ahead of it.. super charging the drive Eastward.

    Too bad it wouldn't work for the Japanese.. crossing the Pacific in a lawn chair and a flock of cheesy party balloons probably never appealed to anyone. Took decidedly "creative" Joe six pack to come up with that.