Should Prison Sentences Be Based On Crimes That Haven’t Been Committed Yet?

  • metta

    Posts: 39138

    Aug 18, 2015 4:52 PM GMT
    Should Prison Sentences Be Based On Crimes That Haven’t Been Committed Yet?


    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/prison-reform-risk-assessment/?ex_cid=538fb
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    Aug 18, 2015 7:41 PM GMT
    This would only be acceptable if race, gender and age were not considered as risk factors. More importantly prisons would have to be adequately funded and managed, with programs designed to reduce recidivism (though it would be preferable for the portion of the sentence related to risk of recidivism to be carried out in the community).
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    Aug 18, 2015 11:21 PM GMT
    Oh that's brilliant! icon_rolleyes.gif

    Instead of incarcerating people (violent criminals being the exception) why aren't we working towards redemption and rehabilitation, teaching life skills, and job training?
  • bobbobbob

    Posts: 2812

    Aug 19, 2015 12:21 AM GMT


    Wasn't there a Sci-Fi movie with Tom Cruise about taking out people before they committed crimes?

    This is a mile wide 70 degree slippery slope in even more experimental social engineering. The article seems to express no concerns for the inevitable unforeseen consequences or legal ramifications of this spooky idea.

    If they want to do a pilot program to see how it works, they need to take it to Washington DC and apply it to all the people there... arresting, incarcerating and maybe even an execution every now and again before they commit crimes isn't a bad idea on how to motivate the rest of them to not push their luck.

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    Aug 19, 2015 2:43 AM GMT
    metta8 saidShould Prison Sentences Be Based On Crimes That Haven’t Been Committed Yet?


    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/prison-reform-risk-assessment/?ex_cid=538fb



    Hopefully it will remain a movie..
    MV5BMTc1NDI5NzQyNF5BMl5BanBnXkFtZTYwMjc4
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    Aug 19, 2015 3:58 PM GMT
    UndercoverMan saidOh that's brilliant! icon_rolleyes.gif

    Instead of incarcerating people (violent criminals being the exception) why aren't we working towards redemption and rehabilitation, teaching life skills, and job training?


    Because, based on my 32 years of practicing law and representing both accused and convicted persons, and law enforcement officers, many people are simply beyond redemption, usually because they don't want to be redeemed. Sad but true.
  • bobbobbob

    Posts: 2812

    Aug 19, 2015 6:09 PM GMT
    MGINSD said
    UndercoverMan saidOh that's brilliant! icon_rolleyes.gif

    Instead of incarcerating people (violent criminals being the exception) why aren't we working towards redemption and rehabilitation, teaching life skills, and job training?


    Because, based on my 32 years of practicing law and representing both accused and convicted persons, and law enforcement officers, many people are simply beyond redemption, usually because they don't want to be redeemed. Sad but true.


    ^^^^^^^^^^
    This is true, but few want to accept it. I'll see if I can find the stats on it. They're shocking.
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    Aug 19, 2015 9:14 PM GMT
    https://www.themarshallproject.org/2015/08/04/the-new-science-of-sentencing
    Pennsylvania has roughly 50,000 people in state custody, 2,000 more than it has permanent beds for. Thousands more are in local jails, and hundreds of thousands are on probation or parole. The state spends $2 billion a year on its corrections system — more than 7 percent of the total state budget, up from less than 2 percent 30 years ago.


    http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/pacrime.htm
    Pennsylvania Population and Rate of Crime per 100,000 People 1960 - 2013
    year population index
    1960 11,319,366 1,049.4
    1970 11,793,909 2,185.8
    1980 11,824,220 3,736.3
    1990 11,881,643 3,476.1
    2000 12,281,054 2,995.3
    2010 12,717,722 2,539.6
    2013 12,773,801 2,387.4

    Someone have a look at this and tell me what I'm looking at if they know:

    [url]http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/Pennsylvania%20crime%20and%20punishment%20statistics.html[/url]
    Year Inmates /100,000 New Index * Index/ Inmates
    1978 65.1 589.5 9.1
    1979 64.7 649.8 10.0
    1980 68.3 701.1 10.3
    1981 78.4 702.9 9.0
    1982 88.2 669.6 7.6
    1983 98.8 628.1 6.4
    1984 110.0 594.5 5.4
    1985 120.0 601.7 5.0
    1986 128.7 632.9 4.9
    1987 137.6 648.8 4.7
    1988 151.0 643.4 4.3
    1989 172.4 676.8 3.9
    1990 187.2 735.5 3.9
    1991 195.2 760.9 3.9
    1992 207.2 723.6 3.5
    1993 214.9 702.9 3.3
    1994 232.6 711.2 3.1
    1995 265.7 721.1 2.7
    1996 282.6 787.9 2.8
    1997 285.9 741.0 2.6
    Year Inmates /100,000 New Index * Index/ Inmates
    1998 297.0 705.7 2.4
    1999 297.8 689.8 2.3
    2000 299.9 677.5 2.3
    2001 309.4 664.6 2.1
    2002 325.8 646.1 2.0
    2003 330.8 640.8 1.9
    2004 330.4 653.2 2.0
    2005 341.0 667.5 2.0
    2006 352.8 679.3 1.9
    2007 362.9 652.6 1.8
    2008 390.3 645.2 1.7
    2009 407.1 602.2 1.5
    2010 401.6 583.8 1.5
    2011 402.9 584.8 1.5
    2012 398.2 572.2 1.4
    2013 391.5 532.7 1.4
    Year Inmates /100,000 New Index * Index/ Inmates


    I've never looked at this before. Does that say that Penn went from 65 inmates per 100,000 in 1978 to 391 per 100,000 in 2013?

    That the increase is six-fold during that time?