How Demographics Will Shape Elections. Turn a Red state Blue Interactive Tool. & Educated Republicans Support Democrats. Liberalizing America. It's like it's Xmas or something.

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    Dec 22, 2015 3:48 AM GMT

    interactive Swing-O-Matic tool click here:

    Electoral votes: 332 ✔
    Popular vote: 51.7%

    Electoral votes: 206
    Popular vote: 46.6%

    ...To build a baseline model of the 2016 presidential election, we started with the results of the 2012 election, looking at support for Mitt Romney vs. President Obama by five demographic groups: whites with college degrees, whites without college degrees, African-Americans, Latinos and Asians/others. We then adjusted the size of those demographic groups based on four years of population change.1 From there, you can choose your own adventure: When you adjust each group’s national turnout and party breakdown, the Swing-O-Matic automatically recalculates each state’s election results, along with the outcome of the Electoral College and national popular vote.

    ...In both 2008 and 2012, Republicans’ best group by far — of the five we examined — was white voters without college degrees....However, these voters...(are in) decline...

    ...In contrast, white degree-holders — who still lean Republican but are much likelier to support Democrats than whites without a degree — rise a percentage point every four years.

    Not unlike the oceans lol.

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    Dec 22, 2015 5:53 PM GMT
    Why America Is Moving Left

    ...the liberal era ushered in by Barack Obama is only just beginning....

    ...The more I examined the evidence, the more I realized that the current moment looks like a mirror image of the late ’60s and early ’70s. The resemblances are clear, but their political significance has been turned upside down. There is a backlash against the liberalism of the Obama era. But it is louder than it is strong. Instead of turning right, the country as a whole is still moving to the left...

    ...The next Democratic president will be more liberal than Barack Obama. The next Republican president will be more liberal than George W. Bush....

  • musclmed

    Posts: 3223

    Dec 22, 2015 6:21 PM GMT
    Please , the Atlantic. Thanks for the laugh.
  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14062

    Dec 23, 2015 2:33 AM GMT
    Demographics will have absolutely nothing to do with it. This is just you ultra leftist radicals living in your ultra leftist fantasyland. With the large number of Americans still disgusted with politics and all politicians, the large majority will most likely stay home in 2016 just like they did in all previous years. Most of the disgusted ones live in both the urban and suburban areas. Whereas people from small towns and rural areas are more politically active and much more likely to vote. Give it up guys, this is all propaganda.
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    Dec 31, 2015 2:23 PM GMT
    Republican Demographic Problems Aren't Just For the Future Anymore

    ...on the minus side, Hispanics and young whites have become significantly more Democratic.

    Hispanics are no surprise. Republicans have spent the past three years loudly opposing comprehensive immigration reform and playing "can you top this?" when it comes to border security. Then along came Donald Trump, with his murderers and rapists and his big, beautiful wall. The only surprise here is Hispanics haven't moved further away from the Republican Party.

    But it's certainly odd that Republicans are losing both Hispanics and young whites. Or maybe not. Older whites are generally attracted to traditional conservative values and the vague racial dog whistles that Republicans specialize in. But younger whites are probably turned off by social troglodytism—especially anti-gay animus—and don't respond to the dog whistles one way or another. So they're leaving.


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    Jan 03, 2016 5:03 PM GMT
    Poll: Republicans come up short in search for diverse voters in 2016 election

    NEW YORK/WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Ten months before the United States elects a new president, the Republican Party has yet to resolve a problem that its leaders said contributed to Mitt Romney’s 2012 loss to Barack Obama: a lack of support among Hispanic and younger voters

    ...While the American electorate has become more diverse the last three years, the party’s [u]support among Hispanic likely voters and younger likely voters has shrunk significantly...

    – Among Hispanics who are likely presidential voters, the percentage affiliated with the Republican Party has slipped nearly five points, from 30.6 percent in 2012 to 26 percent in 2015. Meanwhile, Hispanic Democrats grew by six percentage points to 59.6 percent.

    – Among whites under 40, the shift is even more dramatic. In 2012, they were more likely to identify with the Republican Party by about 5 percentage points. In 2015, the advantage flipped: Young whites are now more likely to identify with the Democratic Party by about 8 percentage points.

    – Meanwhile, black likely voters remain overwhelmingly Democratic, at about 80 percent