Dec 22, 2015 3:48 AM GMT
interactive Swing-O-Matic tool click here:
Electoral votes: 332 ✔
Popular vote: 51.7%
Electoral votes: 206
Popular vote: 46.6%
...To build a baseline model of the 2016 presidential election, we started with the results of the 2012 election, looking at support for Mitt Romney vs. President Obama by five demographic groups: whites with college degrees, whites without college degrees, African-Americans, Latinos and Asians/others. We then adjusted the size of those demographic groups based on four years of population change.1 From there, you can choose your own adventure: When you adjust each group’s national turnout and party breakdown, the Swing-O-Matic automatically recalculates each state’s election results, along with the outcome of the Electoral College and national popular vote.
...In both 2008 and 2012, Republicans’ best group by far — of the five we examined — was white voters without college degrees....However, these voters...(are in) decline...
...In contrast, white degree-holders — who still lean Republican but are much likelier to support Democrats than whites without a degree — rise a percentage point every four years.
Not unlike the oceans lol.