Professor says model correctly predicted results for last 104 years: Odds Of President Trump Range between 97% & 99%

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    Feb 25, 2016 5:08 PM GMT
    Note: This model and the probabilities assume Trump is the GOP nominee.

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    A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.

    The professor is Helmut Norpoth of Stony Brook University, reports The Statesman, the campus newspaper at the public bastion on New York’s Long Island.

    Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.

    The predictions assume Trump will actually become the 2016 presidential nominee of the Republican Party.
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    “Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent” in terms of popular vote, Norpoth prophesied
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    The political scientist also said there is virtually no way Trump could lose the Electoral College vote if he rakes in 54.7 percent — or more — of the vote

    http://dailycaller.com/2016/02/24/political-science-professor-odds-of-president-trump-range-between-97-and-99/
  • HottJoe

    Posts: 21366

    Feb 25, 2016 5:33 PM GMT
    I think the nervous laughter must come from people who realize that a Trump victory would be an embarrassment to the nation.

    I just can't take people who would vote for Trump seriously. It's like the whole country is being trolled by socalfitness and Southbeach.
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    Feb 25, 2016 6:14 PM GMT
    Fasten your seatbelts, it's going to be a bumpy night!
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    Feb 25, 2016 6:16 PM GMT
    HottJoe saidI just can't take people who would vote for Trump seriously. It's like the whole country is being trolled by socalfitness and Southbeach.

    Well, stop and consider that the Survivor tv show is still popular. As well as many other incredibly stupid tv shows. That says a lot about the intelligence of the people in this country.
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    Feb 25, 2016 6:18 PM GMT
    political science

    /end
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    Feb 25, 2016 9:15 PM GMT
    __morphic__ saidpolitical science

    /end

    A description of one such department, this one at Stanford. Are all these people clueless? Any pearls of wisdom to share?
    https://politicalscience.stanford.edu/
  • HottJoe

    Posts: 21366

    Feb 25, 2016 9:22 PM GMT
    socalfitness said
    __morphic__ saidpolitical science

    /end

    A description of one such department, this one at Stanford. Are all these people clueless? Any pearls of wisdom to share?
    https://politicalscience.stanford.edu/

    Less than year ago they would've said Trump has a 0% chance of becoming the next POTUS, so something tells their predictions are no more or less telling than a Magic 8 ball.icon_rolleyes.gif
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    Mar 02, 2016 10:16 PM GMT
    Democrats Less Convinced Candidates Have Good Ideas

    http://www.gallup.com/opinion/polling-matters/189680/democrats-less-convinced-candidates-good-ideas.aspx?g_source=POLITICS&g_medium=topic&g_campaign=tiles
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    Mar 03, 2016 2:08 PM GMT
    Trump will be a presidential nominee. The only question is under which banner. With respect to this professor's statistical model, we all know that the Trump phenomenon has destroyed, or made irrelevant, many (if not all) purported statistical models. Statisticians and prognosticators need to devise new models in light of what's happening right now.
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    Mar 03, 2016 4:03 PM GMT
    DOMINUS saidTrump will be a presidential nominee. The only question is under which banner. With respect to this professor's statistical model, we all know that the Trump phenomenon has destroyed, or made irrelevant, many (if not all) purported statistical models. Statisticians and prognosticators need to devise new models in light of what's happening right now.

    Fair observation. Quantitative models may be obsolete or less relevant, but we can certainly see qualitatively.
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    Mar 05, 2016 2:26 AM GMT
    I'm prepared to be surprised again. I never thought Reagan would win even though Carter was unpopular.

    However, now that I look at the Gallup stats I see Obama and Carter approval ratings were/are about the same in the high 40% region.

    So... we will see.


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    Mar 05, 2016 2:29 AM GMT
    1289142590399860776.gif