Statistical model predicts Trump has 97% chance of beating Clinton; 99% over Sanders

  • onlyawhisper

    Posts: 61

    Feb 29, 2016 1:04 PM GMT
    http://www.newsday.com/news/nation/stony-brook-professor-if-donald-trump-gets-republican-nomination-he-ll-win-presidency-1.11517337

    If Donald Trump wins the Republican presidential primary, he is almost a shoo-in to win the presidency this November, a Stony Brook University professor predicts.

    Professor Helmut Norpoth’s statistical model, which looks at a candidate’s performance in their party’s presidential primary and factors in the broader electoral cycle, shows that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton in the general election, reported Stony Brook’s newspaper The Statesman. His odds rise to 99 percent against Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders.

    The professor of political science presented his 2016 forecast at the SUNY Global Center in Manhattan on Monday.

    “Trump beats Hillary 54.7 percent to 45.3 percent. This is almost too much to believe,” Norpoth said as he showed his forecast for that potential matchup, using data from the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. “The probability of that [outcome] is almost complete certainty, 97 percent. It’s almost ‘Take it to the bank.’”

    The model’s high confidence in a Trump win is due to his relatively high success so far, Norporth said. The model also factors in the electoral cycle, which makes it difficult for a party to hold the White House three terms in a row, as the Democrats are trying to do in 2016.

    Of course, if this presidential campaign has been anything so far, it’s been unpredictable.

    Norporth, however, has applied his primary model to elections going back to 1912 — and it has forecast the popular vote winner every time except for 1960. (You can read more about his work here and here.)

    The Stony Brook professor’s forecasts are much closer for 2016 matchups involving Texas Sen. Ted Cruz or Florida Sen. Marco Rubio. Clinton would have a 55 percent chance of beating them by a narrow margin in the popular vote, while Rubio or Cruz would have a 60 percent chance of beating Sanders by a small amount, The Statesman reported.



    You can watch him explain here:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqM3iw1WeDM

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=guz4M7HBhjE
  • interestingch...

    Posts: 694

    Feb 29, 2016 2:06 PM GMT
    Well lets hope he wins the election and releases the truth about 911, the people of the world need to know. Today in The Mail, one of the British papers on the front page exposing Tony Blair lying along with Bush on the WMD that Iraq had was all a lie, the people responsible for all this need to be held accountable and Trump will do that for the US, over a million people died in that war which was based on a lie, including American and European troops, the whole middle east has become destabilised as a result and put Europe at risk of destabilisation and economic collapse.
    if you want to know the truth and have a chance at saving the US economy them vote for Trump.
  • onlyawhisper

    Posts: 61

    Mar 01, 2016 1:22 AM GMT
    I'm hoping his prediction is right! I don't want Hillary in office.
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    Mar 15, 2016 6:45 PM GMT
    Trump has you all fooled. I've dealt with him for 35 years. He's a Liberal Democrat and now a Rhino.

    He wants to be President so he can fully lift the Cuba embargo which will enable his kids to develop the island.

    That's why Trump is pummeling Rubio out of politics since Rubio is against further lifting the embargo.
  • onlyawhisper

    Posts: 61

    May 05, 2016 12:17 AM GMT
    Anyone think the poll numbers may soon turn around?
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    May 05, 2016 12:26 AM GMT
    onlyawhisper saidAnyone think the poll numbers may soon turn around?

    Rasmussen already has. Others will probably follow as Trump and company take aim at Clintons.
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    May 05, 2016 1:14 AM GMT
    Funny how we saw similar "statistical projections" of a Republican election triumph when Obama ran against McCain, and again when Obama ran against Romney. And all kinds of "polls" showing that Obama was doomed in November 2008 and 2012.

    Well, we saw how reliable those reports were. Whose main purpose, I believe, was to demoralize Democratic voters and discourage them from going to the polls. While eneragizing Republicans voters, in the time-honored US reflex of their presumably wanting to "go with the winner".

    And here we go again. We're gonna see a lot of this in the months ahead. Despite legitimate polls that show Hillary Clinton with a large lead over Trump. But hey, Hiillary's already lost the general electon, haven't you heard? Just like Obama lost, twice. icon_rolleyes.gif
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    May 05, 2016 1:51 AM GMT
    interestingchap saidWell lets hope he wins the election and releases the truth about 911, the people of the world need to know. Today in The Mail, one of the British papers on the front page exposing Tony Blair lying along with Bush on the WMD that Iraq had was all a lie, the people responsible for all this need to be held accountable and Trump will do that for the US, over a million people died in that war which was based on a lie, including American and European troops, the whole middle east has become destabilised as a result and put Europe at risk of destabilisation and economic collapse.
    if you want to know the truth and have a chance at saving the US economy them vote for Trump.


    "Tony Blair lying along with Bush on the WMD that Iraq had was all a lie,"

    Looks to me like Bush/Blair had a little company, and btw, in 98, Bush was just a lowly Texas Governor.