Mar 12, 2016 11:48 PM GMT
Poll-Defying Pattern Predicts Sanders Victory
the Michigan upset is not, as America's foremost poll analyst Nate Silver claimed, a freak event not witnessed since the New Hampshire primary of 1984, but part of a new pattern of poll-defying results that will, if they continue, carry Bernie Sanders into the White House....
If Sanders does nearly as well as the 35 percent average poll-to-reality discrepancy of the four state pattern described above, Bernie may even win Illinois and Florida next week. Should that happen, it will be Bernie, not Hillary, who will have become "inevitable."...
...Other Indicators That Bernie Will Win the Nomination
In addition to the poll-to-reality discrepancy pattern described above, another encouraging indicator for the Sanders campaign is that his largest victories seem to lie ahead, while Hillary's are nearly all behind her...
One more indicator that Bernie will be the Democratic nominee is the least known, even though it has the most successful predictive track record. American University's Kogod School of Business tracked every Presidential primary since 1968 to determine which state primaries for each party were most likely to predict the eventual winner in the nomination contest. In their extensive study, only one state was found to predict the Democratic nominee 100 percent of the time for every presidential election during the last 50 years.
That state was Kansas.
Bernie won Kansas on March 5, with a poll-defying 67.7 percent of the vote.