Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump recently released a health care reform plan entitled “Healthcare Reform to Make America Great Again.” This plan has two major components. First, it would fully repeal the Affordable Care Act (“Obamacare”) and replace it with several new policies. Second, it would turn Medicaid into a “block grant” program.

By our estimates, Mr. Trump’s plan to repeal and replace Obamacare would cost roughly $270 billion over ten years including estimates of faster economic growth, and nearly $500 billion under conventional scoring.

The policies would cause almost 21 million people to lose their insurance coverage, as the replacement health care policies would only cover 5 percent of the 22 million individuals who would lose coverage upon the repeal of Obamacare. This would almost double the number of Americans without health insurance...


...As our analysis above shows, Mr. Trump’s plan to repeal and replace Obamacare – based on the details available – would both add to the deficit and significantly reduce coverage. Meanwhile, his plan to block grant Medicaid could generate significant savings; however, insufficient details are available to estimate if there are any and how much.

These changes are for the most part in addition to Mr. Trump’s other policy proposals,3 which we’ve estimated would cost between $12 and $15 trillion, driving debt to somewhere between 115 and 140 percent of the economy in ten years.