Brexit and the Future of Europe:

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    Jul 01, 2016 5:17 PM GMT
    https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-eu-disintegration-inevitable-by-george-soros-2016-06Britain, I believe, had the best of all possible deals with the European Union, being a member of the common market without belonging to the euro and having secured a number of other opt-outs from EU rules. And yet that was not enough to stop the United Kingdom’s electorate from voting to leave. Why?

    The answer could be seen in opinion polls in the months leading up to the “Brexit” referendum. The European migration crisis and the Brexit debate fed on each other. The “Leave” campaign exploited the deteriorating refugee situation – symbolized by frightening images of thousands of asylum-seekers concentrating in Calais, desperate to enter Britain by any means necessary – to stoke fear of “uncontrolled” immigration from other EU member states. And the European authorities delayed important decisions on refugee policy in order to avoid a negative effect on the British referendum vote, thereby perpetuating scenes of chaos like the one in Calais.

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s decision to open her country’s doors wide to refugees was an inspiring gesture, but it was not properly thought out, because it ignored the pull factor. A sudden influx of asylum-seekers disrupted people in their everyday lives across the EU.

    The lack of adequate controls, moreover, created panic, affecting everyone: the local population, the authorities in charge of public safety, and the refugees themselves. It has also paved the way for the rapid rise of xenophobic anti-European parties – such as the UK Independence Party, which spearheaded the Leave campaign – as national governments and European institutions seem incapable of handling the crisis.

    Now the catastrophic scenario that many feared has materialized, making the disintegration of the EU practically irreversible....

    That is where we are today. All of Europe, including Britain, would suffer from the loss of the common market and the loss of common values that the EU was designed to protect. Yet the EU truly has broken down and ceased to satisfy its citizens’ needs and aspirations. It is heading for a disorderly disintegration that will leave Europe worse off than where it would have been had the EU not been brought into existence.

    But we must not give up. Admittedly, the EU is a flawed construction. After Brexit, all of us who believe in the values and principles that the EU was designed to uphold must band together to save it by thoroughly reconstructing it....

    african-elephant-calves-loxodonta-africa
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    Jul 01, 2016 9:17 PM GMT
    Invisible elephant back at it again?

    I wonder lol
  • training_guy

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    Jul 01, 2016 9:22 PM GMT
    The EU is one great dictatorship & I hope it collapses now.
    Apparently Sweden, Germany, Italy & France are all under pressure to hold referendums.
    I'm so glad we had the referendum & OUT was the democratic result. Yet another example of Great Britain saving the planet from German world domination. You're welcome.


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    Jul 01, 2016 10:59 PM GMT
    training_guy saidThe EU is one great dictatorship & I hope it collapses now.
    Apparently Sweden, Germany, Italy & France are all under pressure to hold referendums.
    I'm so glad we had the referendum & OUT was the democratic result. Yet another example of Great Britain saving the planet from German world domination. You're welcome.




    +1
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    Jul 02, 2016 1:54 AM GMT
    I remember in 1988 at the Second Burning Man there was a dude that went crazy on someone that brought a can of Coke. His trirade was all about the evils of Globalism which was a new very dirty word at the time. I really didn't have an option at the time but as Perrier bought out all the water bottlelers and Nestle bought out food companies and Monsanto got there GMO Canola oil into everything I'm not liking what I see because it's how the elite have become obscenely rich through the control of everything. Hillary buying the nominating machine with multinational money was the final wake up call . Congrats to the Brits for having the balls to confront the Fourth Reich .
  • training_guy

    Posts: 271

    Jul 02, 2016 6:05 AM GMT
    MaleElement saidI remember in 1988 at the Second Burning Man there was a dude that went crazy on someone that brought a can of Coke. His trirade was all about the evils of Globalism which was a new very dirty word at the time. I really didn't have an option at the time but as Perrier bought out all the water bottlelers and Nestle bought out food companies and Monsanto got there GMO Canola oil into everything I'm not liking what I see because it's how the elite have become obscenely rich through the control of everything. Hillary buying the nominating machine with multinational money was the final wake up call . Congrats to the Brits for having the balls to confront the Fourth Reich .


    +1
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    Jul 02, 2016 1:17 PM GMT
    Given David Cameron said that, in the event of a leave vote, he would invoke Article 50 (i.e. formally starting the EU withdrawal process) the day after the referendum, there now seems to be a great deal of reluctance to push the "leave" button . Even the likely next prime minister, Theresa May, has said Article 50 should not be invoked until next year at the earliest. As the referendum was "advisory" and "not legally binding" the decision to leave will probably require primary legislation and, given that something like 550 out of 650 sitting MPs (i.e. the people we elect to make our legislative decisions) are pro-remain, the "leave" process may fall at the next hurdle.
  • training_guy

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    Jul 02, 2016 5:25 PM GMT
    Yes that's true, you can't trust any of them. I wonder what they will pull out of the bag next.
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    Jul 02, 2016 5:55 PM GMT
    Doubt anybody wants to cut themselves off at the knees so they will work out a least harmful solution involving freer trade and fewer artifical restrictions. Organization means complexity and there's been just too much of bureacrats trying to organize everyone's lives to the point it's too complex and the people have said "enough". Central planning has it's limit as the communists found out.
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    Jul 02, 2016 6:24 PM GMT
    MaleElement said1988... evils of Globalism... Congrats to the Brits for having the balls to confront the Fourth Reich
    seems the late 1980's have shaped MaleElement's life view. The world has become a smaller place since the 80's.

    whatever; soc account any ways
  • boxit

    Posts: 13

    Jul 02, 2016 7:40 PM GMT
    The EU represented a democratic threat. Many UK workers felt that the traditional welfare state socialism is undermined by the centralised Brussels elite which proved incapable of democratic and (yes) truly socialist progress and transformation. Indeed, the EU as it stands today lurches between the right and the neo -liberals, with there uncompromising march towards unchecked globalisation. EU directives on clean beaches and air traffic mean very little if you are reliant on food banks and see your wages undercut by an influx of cheap labour from the east. Many nations trade easily without the burgeoning restrictions imposed by the mad Brussels elite who are basically capitalist fat cats who wish the euro will one day become the new replacement world reserve currency at the expense of Europes poorer countries. Its a tragedy and all bad tragedies and nightmares come to an end. Evil consumes itself.
  • boxit

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    Jul 02, 2016 8:03 PM GMT
    Uk parliament will be forced to rubber stamp the legislation to begin clause 50 as the Tory government has at least 100 VERY eurosceptic MPs who would defect in droves. One of the main reasons the referendum was held was to stop once and for all the deep divisions in the government. Even pro Europe Tory MPs will be whipped to vote for Brexit. Its a mere formality. Otherwise with the "labour party" in such disarray and incapable of self-repair, British politics would fragment beyond repair as smaller political parties seek to hold the balance of power and this would throw the Tory party's agenda of dismantling the welfare state and reducing the sovereign debt COMPLETEY of course!
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    Jul 02, 2016 9:59 PM GMT
    boxit saidUk parliament will be forced to rubber stamp the legislation to begin clause 50 as the Tory government has at least 100 VERY eurosceptic MPs who would defect in droves. One of the main reasons the referendum was held was to stop once and for all the deep divisions in the government. Even pro Europe Tory MPs will be whipped to vote for Brexit. Its a mere formality. Otherwise with the "labour party" in such disarray and incapable of self-repair, British politics would fragment beyond repair as smaller political parties seek to hold the balance of power and this would throw the Tory party's agenda of dismantling the welfare state and reducing the sovereign debt COMPLETEY of course!


    Given the political events of the last week, anything could happen. Exactly how will parliament be "forced to rubber stamp" the legislation? Even if 100 Eurosceptic MPs rebelled, that would still leave around 550 pro-EU MPs in parliament. I certainly wouldn't be so sure parliament will "rubber stamp" the most important decision in UK politics since WW2. By then, the UK might be in recession and the adverse economic and social effects of the Brexit referendum result might be beginning to bite. Add to that the almost certain break up of the United Kingdom in the event of our leaving the EU and Tory MPs - don't forget they are still officially the "Conservative and Unionist Party" - probably won't be so ready to toe the party line. Indeed, full Brexit may not even be the Conservative Party line by then. As for a Labour Party in disarray - that would make Labour MPs less likely to follow their party whip and more likely to vote down any Brexit-enabling legislation.

    Meanwhile, the Lib Dems will be running on a Remain platform at the next general election, whenever that may be. Given almost half the electorate are in favour of our remaining in the EU and the Labour Party may not be fully reconciled by then, it's not entirely impossible the Lib Dems could gain enough seats to form a working majority in parliament with the Scottish Nationalists, in a pro-Remain government, with an electoral mandate.

    Oh and, by the way, the reason so many people are "reliant on food banks" is nothing to do with our EU membership. It's because the Conservative-led government have been cutting the welfare budget for the past 6 years. While I agree the wage disparity between the UK and eastern Europe has caused some friction regarding migrant workers, it certainly doesn't justify throwing the baby out with the bathwater.
  • boxit

    Posts: 13

    Jul 02, 2016 10:52 PM GMT
    "./..Given the political events of the last week, anything could happen. Exactly how will parliament be "forced to rubber stamp" the legislation? If 100 Eurosceptic MPs walked, that would still leave around 550 pro-EU MPs.

    Yes but the next election is due 2020. If 100 tories defected and joined say UKIP then the governments current slender majority whittles it away to a minority govt. Incapable of passing any other legislation.

    ".. certainly wouldn't be so sure parliament will "rubber stamp" the most important decision in UK politics since WW2. By then, the UK might be in recession ..".

    But then so might Euroland ...

    "and the adverse economic and social effects of the Brexit referendum result might be beginning to bite"...
    You mean freedom to trade even without formal trade agreements such as the UK now enjoys with the USA? And which it would most devastatingly fail to continue to enjoy were the Brussels backed TTIP to be imposed European wide. Thank goodness that that little nightmare plan is a dead duck ......all thanks to Brexit.

    " Add to that the almost certain break up of the United Kingdom in the event of our leaving the EU and Tory MPs - don't forget they are still officially the "Conservative and Unionist Party"

    Ahh but have you seen not only the dwindling price of Brent crude but also the way Nicola Sturgeon was snubbed by other European leaders? . For Scotland to breakaway and join the EU she must first meet all the fiscal criteria laid out in the Maastricht treaty.. Ain't gonna happen with current Scottish spending plans.

    " - probably won't be so ready to toe...."

    In which case expect loads more ukip MPs as disaffection spreads like ripples in a pool when a brick is thrown in it. Tories will not be keen to delay Brexit legislation as any delay will also annoy that nice Mr Juncker and he might retaliate when the eurobreak up begins in earnest in France and Italy..


    ." As for a Labour Party in disarray - that would make Labour MPs less likely to follow their party whip"

    New Labour party's manifesto pledge has been and always will be pro Europe and was until recently even for UK joining the single currency IF circumstances allow! Labour majorities in traditional labour heartlands are being massively reduced in favour of ukip viz Newcastle and Sunderland. A little MORE Euroscepticism might actually be perceived as healthy for labour mps with slender majorities.. But with the blinkers on the labour leadership this point will not be realised until its too late.

    "Oh and, by the way, the reason so many people are "reliant on food banks" is nothing to do with our EU membership. It's because the Conservative-led government have been cutting the welfare budget for the past 6 years."

    Yes but as the European federalist dream has failed miserably to implement any reasonable policies to significantly reduce pan-european poverty by introducing legislation that overrides individual sovereign states fiscal policies ( quite surprising really as the EU loves to override and impose all manner and types of unpopular legislation on sovereign states ) then you have to wonder where its long term social policies are exactly! True there is the so called minimum wage which is derisory in the UK but when you are working on a zero hours contract(another EU legislation oversight) for such a wage and paying huge amounts of EU stipulated minimum rates of VAT then you gotta wonder when Herr Juncker and his coterie of cronies will get off the fat cat gravy train and walk away. There are huge disparities in each member state in the implementation of the minumum wage rates. Greece youth unemployment at 49% as a result of connivance between ecb and EU and Greek govt officials notwithstanding. In the case of the UK poverty has been well documented as being directly associated with a combination of downward wages caused by cheaper labour allowed under EU rules and of higher housing costs largely caused by increase in demand as the population also increases too rapidly from excessive uncontrolled european immigration and existing housing stock supply just cannot meet the demand that quickly.

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    Jul 02, 2016 11:46 PM GMT
    boxit said".
    "Yes but next election is due 2020. If 100 tories defected and joined say UKIP then the governments current slender majority whittles it away to a minority govt. Incapable of passing any other legislation."

    The next election could happen much sooner. Meantime, a majority of pro-EU Tory MPs adopt the tactics of the Eurosceptics, who for years have been rebelling against the government when it suits them.

    "But then so might Euroland ..."

    Perhaps, but the Brexit vote will still be seen as having caused the recession - and justifiably so - we were warned.

    "You mean freedom to trade even without formal trade agreements such as the UK now enjoys with the USA? And which it would most devastatingly fail to continue to enjoy were the Brussels backed TTIP to be imposed euroepeanwide. Thank goodness that that little nightmare plan is a dead duck ......all thanks to Brexit."

    None of which will matter to your average Brexit voter if goods and services are getting more expensive, pensions are taking a hit and unemployment starts rising again.

    "Ahh but have you seen not only the dwindling price of Brent crude but also the way Nicola Sturgeon was snubbed by other European leaders? . For Scotland to breakaway and join the EU she must first meet all the fiscal criteria laid out in the Maastricht treaty.. Ain't gonna happen with current Scottish spending plans."

    The price of Brent crude isn't dwindling anymore. Sturgeon was told she couldn't negotiate while Scotland is part of the UK, that's all. And the Maastricht criteria lay down the requirements for adopting the euro (currency), not for joining the EU.

    "In which case expect loads more ukip MPs as dissafection spreads like ripples in a pool when a brick is thrown in it. Tories will not be keen to delay Brexit legislation as any delay will also annoy that nice Mr Juncker and the eurobreak up begins in earnest in France and Italy.. "

    Lol - UKIP are currently having a job keeping their only Westminster MP, whom Farage is reportedly due to sack for pointing out the absurdity of that poster.

    "Labour party's manifesto pledge has been and always will be pro Europe and was until recently even for UK joining the single currency IF circumstances allow! Labour majorities in traditional labour heartlands are being massively reduced in favour of ukip viz Newcastle and Sunderland. A little MORE Euroscepticism might actually be perceived as healthy for labour mps with slender majorities.. But with the blinkers on the labour leadership this point will not be realises until its too late."

    Well, Labour's official line is to "respect" the Brexit vote, but that may prove difficult to deliver in practice. Many Brexiteers are already beginning to see they have been sold a pup by the Leave campaign. When they realize Brexit isn't going to provide the panacea for their woes, they might well tell the Tories and Ukip where to go.
  • boxit

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    Jul 03, 2016 12:05 AM GMT
    "The next election could happen much sooner. Meantime, a majority of pro-EU Tory MPs adopt the tactics of the Eurosceptics, who for years have been rebelling against the government when it suits them."

    And how,exactly do you envisage this happening? It would be as a result of a no confidence vote? No euro sceptic Tories would ever be voting like turkeys for Xmas: they are not lib demmers after all ! Besides all this Tory rebellious behaviour to which you refer would take many months before it has any chance of success and time is not on their side judging by the comments of other European leaders

    " Perhaps, but the Brexit vote will still be seen as having caused the recession and justifiably so - we were warned."

    I know and the four horsemen of the Apocalypse will come etc etc. The truth is that the EU is a protectionist crumbling empire . it has an overvalued currency and has a lower rate of GDP growth than other countries inc the UK. A recession in euroland and eu was inevitable with or without Brexit .


    "None of which will matter to your average Brexit voter if goods and services are getting more expensive, pensions are taking a hit and unemployment starts rising again"

    But this is the same old fear mongering which actually turned many undecided voters toward Brexit. So far the markets have rebounded.. The pound is weaker but this will boost exports and stimulate employment. And so far the effect on the cost of imports is manageable as overseas suppliers slash costs in order to compete. Its actually a stimulus which the eurozone with its stringent currency supply rules has tried to make happen but has failed to achieve resulting in stagnant or low growth in the 27 EU states.

    "The price of Brent crude isn't dwindling anymore"
    .well its a lot lot lower than the 90 dollars a barrel with which the SNP bragged could keep Scotland independent.

    ." Sturgeon was told she couldn't negotiate while Scotland is part of the UK, that's all. ". . she was snubbed as her attempts to plead for European support fell on deaf ears many MEPs also feeling that the last thing the EU and the Euro needs right now is a new member state with high government spending and debt looking to join the euro and with its begging bowl out looking for regional aid ... and as was reported at the time of the Scottish Referendum, Scotland could not hope to join the euro with its fragile oil based economy and high govt spending.

    "And the Maastricht criteria lay down the requirements for adopting the euro (currency), not for joining the EU. "

    But that is exactly what the scots will have to do. Osborne has made it quite clear on several occasions that in the event of Scottish independence, they would NOT have the option of using sterling and by default they would be forced either to join the euro OR print their own already debt burdened currency as part of an independence deal with the rest of the UK to take their share of UK sovereign debt.
    So Rule Britannia and let's not have anymore unrealistic threats of Scottish independence.. Scots are far too canny
    "
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    Jul 03, 2016 1:07 AM GMT
    boxit said

    And how,exactly do you envisage this happening? It would be as a result of a no confidence vote? No euro sceptic Tories would ever be voting like turkeys for Xmas: they are not lib demners after all ! Besides all this Tory rebellious behaviour to which you refer would take many months before it has ant chance if success and time is not on their side judging by the comments of other European leaders

    These are strange political times. Given that an Article 50 initiation probably isn't going to happen anytime before Xmas, there is plenty of time for pro-EU Tory MPs to plan ahead.

    I know and the four horsemen of the Apocalypse will come etc etc. The truth us that the EU is a protectionist crumbling empire . it has a wobbly currency and has a lower rate of GDP growth than other countries inc the UK. A recession in euroland and eu was inevitable with or without Brexit.

    Yes, life was so much rosier before the EU - with a thousand years of scrapping and two world wars.

    But this is the same old fear mongering which actually turned many undecided voters toward Brexit. So far the markets have rebounded.. The pound is weaker but this will boost exports and stimulate employment. And so far tve effect on tbe cost of imports us negligible as overseas suppliers slash costs in order to compete. Its actually a stimulus which the eurozone with its stringent currency supply rules has tried to make happen but had failed resulting in stagnant growth in most EU countries..

    No, it was mainly ignorance and stupidity that turned many undecided voters toward Brexit. You're no slouch at the old fear mongering yourself, albeit all of yours is of the anti-EU variety.

    .well its a lot lot lower than the 90 dollars a barrel with which the SNP bragged could keep Scotland independent.

    But that is exactly what the scots will have to do. Osborne has made it quite clear on several occasions that in the event of Scottish independence, they would NOT have the option of using sterling and by default they would be forced to either join the euro OR print their own already debt burdened currency as part of an independence deal with the rest if the UK to take their share of UK sovereign debt.

    Lol - Well if Osborne said it, then it must be so. How many weeks has the hi-viz hero got left in office?
  • boxit

    Posts: 13

    Jul 03, 2016 6:46 AM GMT
    "Yes, life was so much rosier before the EU - with a thousand years of scrapping and two world wars."

    Actually life would had been heaps better for the UK if the 1975_referendum result had gone the other way.. Imagine it ...Mrs Thatcher having swept away the last vestiges of the strangle hold trade unionism had on British industry (just like it is today but without mass uncontrolled immigration). And a strengthening export market. No following the ERM. We would have had an even wider export market.Imagine if you dare the UK financial sector still as strong. EU membership was never meant to undermine NATO and yet the real danger now is that is exactly what the proposed 650,000 EU army (funded by guess who) WILL do. Russia knows that an EU state already compelled to accept membership of NATO and its bases WILL be an even greater threat with an EU army. Already there is talk of reducing NATO presence in Europe in exchange for greater number of EU military bases. Just look at Merkel s disastrous verbal interference in Ukraine.. And yet strangely up to now "fortress Europe" cannot even patrol its own borders effectively enough.

    Oh and where was the stabilising effect of the EU on world peace when Reagan was proposing with the full agreement of European states to implement his Star Wars project.?

    "These are strange political times. Given that an Article 50 initiation probably isn't going to happen anytime before Xmas, there is plenty of time for pro-EU Tory MPs to plan ahead."
    "Lol - Well if Osborne said it, then it must be so. How many weeks has the hi-viz hero got left in office?"

    As I keep repeating the current government has a legal mandate until 2020 ... Not only does that mean that Osborne has a very real chance of remaining chancellor until then, especially if Theresa May becomes PM but also that its far too long a period of grace for our EU overlords to accept. They will want action on Brexit by early 2017 and I really don't think that President Tusk or Juncker will be prepared to see their plans for further European strangulation suspended by some vague Tory plot which might succeed or NOT. Also it is Sturgeon herself who is now making pro euro cooing noises as she desperately clings on.

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    Jul 03, 2016 7:04 AM GMT
    One problem with Brussels, apparently, if the laughable example I heard today is true: Brussels has come up with a rule on the required standard size for pomegranates. Hello? Tell that to my tree in my back yard!

    The keystone issue of Brexit, the whole Middle East mess, global warming, as well as almost every other major issue facing us today is CHILD POLLUTION, otherwise known as overpopulation. Until there is a political will to reduce the number of people on the planet, all these well-intentioned initiatives are doomed to failure. In the EU case, they never came up with a population movement policy which would prevent exactly the situation which currently is existing. Germany opening its borders as it did was simply not a well-thought out decision and was probably motivated in part by emotion from lingering WWII guilt.
  • boxit

    Posts: 13

    Jul 03, 2016 7:18 AM GMT
    "No, it was mainly ignorance and stupidity that turned many undecided voters toward Brexit. You're no slouch at the old fear mongering yourself, albeit all of yours is of the anti-EU variety. "

    That is an insult to the intelligence of 17 million voters who may I suggest were disgusted with our er.. European leaders, one in particular who stated that we would all be " treated like deserters" were Brexit to win. Let's face it the EU has a bad dose of Public Relations acne and is so far incapable of sorting its messy facade. Europe needs reconstruction post EU and I'm sure many progressive European voters would agree with that. Accountability etc. Juncker and Tusk must know how unpopular they are in the southern European states (opinion polls bear this out) but fat chance of them deserting like rats from the raft of The Medusa.
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    Jul 03, 2016 1:13 PM GMT
    As Boris said, "Say 'no' for a better 'yes'". With Theresa May as PM (which is now a virtual certainty) and a majority of Tory MPs being pro-EU, I very much doubt we'll see Article 50 activated. The EU might be showing initial impatience, but it is for the "leaving" country to decide when (and if) it wants to go. The decision will be kicked into the long grass. You can just imagine the new PM saying they will only initiate Article 50 negotiations, “When the time is right” (whatever he or she deems that to mean) or “When doing so would pose no danger to the economy” or “When there is national consensus on the UK’s future relationship with Europe” or “When the concerns of Scotland have been addressed and the UK is safe” or “When we’ve signed a new treaty with the Republic of Ireland so we won’t have to put up border posts" or “When we have agreed the fundamentals of a deal with our allies in member states”. The list goes on.

    As long as the Brexit carrot is still being dangled, Eurosceptic Tory MPs will stay in line; which obfuscation should take us up to the next general election and a reconsideration of Brexit or a compromise with the EU. The longer it all drags on - and it will - the chances of our actually leaving the EU will become more remote. Given that the Brexiteers never had a proper plan, they can hardly complain.



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    Jul 03, 2016 5:13 PM GMT
    Real interesting conversation from across the pond, both by your competing stances and methods of argument, quite a different flavor than the American variety. I read all of it but only caught some of that as I'm not at all familiar with many of your references. What I could understand I found fascinating, particularly what seems similar to America's checks and balances, in that that your referendum was not binding but subject to other forces at play. I had no idea about that before this.

    I'm not a conspiracy theorist, not by a long shot, as I get that lots of random things can happen out of which might seem to emerge patterns that may or may not be intended by the will of man, but there does seem a running theme, the breakup of the EU, which has been ongoing I think for about a decade now. We heard the call or at least as I recall during the initial phases of Great Recession with all the bank failures and we heard the call again during the Greek crisis phase and here we hear the call again with Brexit.

    What's up with that? Being an American who's not studied it, I find this whole Euro thang more complicated than my cell phone bill. This opinion piece by Soros seems to say that the thing is flawed but that some form of it is required or desired for world stability. So how does Brexit play into that, just another random marble rattling around in that bag or is this by some intent about which we can expect to see more there and elsewhere, collateral damage be damned. And all on the way to what? What parties benefit most by whatever outcome might be? Not that such wouldn't be in part coincidence but could be somewhat telling beforehand.

  • boxit

    Posts: 13

    Jul 03, 2016 9:02 PM GMT
    Well anyway something good out of this mess is about to happen in the coming weeks: Merkel wants Juncker's guts for garters. The alcoholic will be out! Whoopee!
  • boxit

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    Jul 03, 2016 9:37 PM GMT
    Another general election before 2020 will do much harm to the UK and under the terms of the 2011 Fixed Term Act will be almost impossible to implement.

    Article 50 will be triggered no matter what. Granted it is for the individual nations to determine when to trigger the said Article BUT the EU could begin to fire all sorts of counter strategies against any nation which it perceives to undermine confidence in the EU edifice. Even Switzerland will soon be required to accept free movement if it wishes to continue on the same terms of trade and this is as a direct consequence of Brexit. The EU is trying to tighten the reins and will continue so to do all the while uncertainty exists in Europe as to the future of The Block. Furthermore, all the time Article 50 is delayed and the UK refuses to negotiate a firm departure date, will be time in which the other 27 nations can implement new laws and strategies which could be prejudicial to continuing membership of the UK in the EU. In future if the UK decides to drag out Brexit, the other 27 members will decide the fate of the EU without the presence of the UK at the negotiating table.
    Any delay will cost both sides dearly. No side in this debacle will want yet more financial market uncertainty, business and World confidence lost, or any future relationship with the EU further weakened.
    To quote from The Guardian:
    "The sooner we submit article 50, the sooner we, the EU, and the World will know where we stand."
  • boxit

    Posts: 13

    Jul 03, 2016 9:46 PM GMT
    Another general election before 2020 will do much harm to the UK and under the terms of the 2011 Fixed Term Act will be almost impossible to implement.

    Article 50 will be triggered no matter what. Granted it is for the individual nations to determine when to trigger the said Article BUT the EU could begin to fire all sorts of counter strategies against any nation which it perceives to undermine confidence in the EU edifice. Even Switzerland will soon be required to accept free movement if it wishes to continue on the same terms of trade and this is as a direct consequence of Brexit. The EU is trying to tighten the reins and will continue so to do all the while uncertainty exists in Europe as to the future of The Block. Furthermore, all the time Article 50 is delayed and the UK refuses to negotiate a firm departure date, will be time in which the other 27 nations can implement new laws and strategies which could be prejudicial to continuing membership of the UK in the EU. In future if the UK decides to drag out Brexit, the other 27 members will decide the fate of the EU without the presence of the UK at the negotiating table.
    Any delay will cost both sides dearly. No side in this debacle will want yet more financial market uncertainty, business and World confidence lost, or any future relationship with the EU further weakened.
    To quote from The Guardian:
    "The sooner we submit article 50, the sooner we, the EU, and the World will know where we stand."