Hillary May Still Lose as She Holds Only 48% of the Vote

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Aug 15, 2016 4:03 PM GMT
    NYT: There is one key respect in which Mrs. Clinton’s big lead doesn’t look so durable, at least in historical terms: She holds only around 48 percent of the vote, and has a commanding lead only because Mr. Trump is stuck around 40 percent. In today’s polarized electorate, he can be polling so low only because he hasn’t unified voters who traditionally lean Republican in presidential elections. Astonishingly, several surveys have shown Mr. Trump with less than 70 percent of self-identified Republican voters.

    This type of disunity is the basic story behind two of the biggest post-convention comebacks in modern history, Hubert Humphrey’s late surge in 1968 and Gerald Ford’s in 1976. Both candidates had divisive conventions, and they left without fully unified parties. Both trailed by double digits in August and September polls, often with less than 35 percent of the vote.

    But in the end, the Republican faithful returned to Mr. Ford, and most Northern Democrats returned to Mr. Humphrey. Mr. Ford lost by just two percentage points, and Mr. Humphrey by less than one point. The elections ended up as two of the three closest presidential contests of the 20th century.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/08/16/upshot/the-state-of-the-clinton-trump-race-is-it-over.html?
  • Destinharbor

    Posts: 4433

    Aug 15, 2016 4:31 PM GMT
    Yeah, it's a bit scary. Republicans and especially Republican religious people are trained to follow their daddy figure. I've yet to hear a sensible reason why any of them would vote for Trump and yet they continue to say they will.

    Glad to see you back, P.
  • metta

    Posts: 39104

    Aug 15, 2016 4:49 PM GMT
    It is the electoral votes that matter.

    Clinton tops 270 electoral votes in NBC map


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    http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/291443-clinton-tops-270-electoral-votes-in-nbc-map
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    Aug 15, 2016 5:03 PM GMT
    With the exception with one election Gore v. Bush, every single Presidential winner must win the popular vote, and therefore the electoral college, to win the White House.

    Hi Destinharbor!
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    Aug 15, 2016 5:54 PM GMT
    woodsmen saidWith the exception with one election Gore v. Bush, every single Presidential winner must win the popular vote, and therefore the electoral college, to win the White House.

    Hi Destinharbor!


    Uh . . .No. -

    A candidate who gets a majority of electoral college votes wins, no matter whether or not the candidate gets more popular votes.

    Presidents who lost the popular vate include, besides Bush II, - John Q. Adams, Hayes, Harrison
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Aug 15, 2016 6:51 PM GMT
    You are right if we were to look at the demographics more than 100 years ago. But today the political science is completely different.

    Why Electoral Votes Won't Really Matter

    NYT: So why all the constant attention to the electoral map and the magic figure of 270, the number of electoral votes required to be elected president?

    One reason is that it’s more fun for journalists, and it’s easier to focus on states and the number of electoral votes. Also this calculus enhances the reputation of political strategists. More important, it matters in very close contests, usually those decided by one percentage point or less, as was the case 12 years ago. In a number of the recent tight races — 1960, 1968, 1976 and, to a lesser extent, 2004 — the popular vote and the map were in sync.

    The two probable conclusions: If the race is decided by two percentage points or more the electoral map won’t matter; if it’s less than that, the president has a slight advantage with the map.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2012/07/09/us/09iht-letter09.html?_r=0
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    Aug 15, 2016 8:00 PM GMT
    Trump is a formidable opposition