Aug 22, 2016 12:31 AM GMT
http://cookpolitical.com/story/9855...Many observers have noted that in the last six decades of modern presidential polling, the candidate with the lead in the polls two weeks after the final convention has always won. Presumably, but not certainly there will be up to three presidential and one vice presidential debates and plenty of room for missteps, disclosures and exogenous events that could alter the trajectory of this race. Given how badly the last few weeks have gone for Trump, it would not be implausible to see Clinton’s margin (seven points in Realclearpolitics.com’s average of major national polls, eight points in Pollster.com’s model) drop a few points. For now, 84 days before the November 8 election, we see this race settling into a very high probability that Hillary Clinton prevails over Donald Trump, though the size of the margin is still up in the air.
At the mid-point of August, Hillary Clinton has 21 states plus the District of Columbia and three of Maine’s four electoral votes that are Solidly, Likely or Leaning in Democratic for a total of 272 electoral votes, two more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Donald Trump has 22 states plus four of Nebraska’s five votes Solidly, Likely or Leaning in his direction for a total of 190 electoral votes - 80 short of victory. In the Toss Up column are five states plus both Maine and Nebraska’s second congressional districts totaling 76 electoral votes.
As the race stands today, Trump could sweep the entire Toss Up column and still come up two electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Cook_Political_ReportThe Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor's offices and the American Presidency....
The Cook Political Report employs what it calls the Cook Partisan Voting Index (the PVI), which lists each congressional district in the country according to propensity for voting Democratic or Republican. Every four years following a presidential election, the PVI is updated to reflect how Democratic or Republican a district is, based on how that district voted in the presidential election compared with the rest of the country.