New August Electoral College Ratings: we see this race settling into a very high probability that Hillary Clinton prevails over Donald Trump

  • Posted by a hidden member.
    Log in to view his profile

    Aug 22, 2016 12:31 AM GMT observers have noted that in the last six decades of modern presidential polling, the candidate with the lead in the polls two weeks after the final convention has always won. Presumably, but not certainly there will be up to three presidential and one vice presidential debates and plenty of room for missteps, disclosures and exogenous events that could alter the trajectory of this race. Given how badly the last few weeks have gone for Trump, it would not be implausible to see Clinton’s margin (seven points in’s average of major national polls, eight points in’s model) drop a few points. For now, 84 days before the November 8 election, we see this race settling into a very high probability that Hillary Clinton prevails over Donald Trump, though the size of the margin is still up in the air.

    At the mid-point of August, Hillary Clinton has 21 states plus the District of Columbia and three of Maine’s four electoral votes that are Solidly, Likely or Leaning in Democratic for a total of 272 electoral votes, two more than the 270 electoral votes needed to win. Donald Trump has 22 states plus four of Nebraska’s five votes Solidly, Likely or Leaning in his direction for a total of 190 electoral votes - 80 short of victory. In the Toss Up column are five states plus both Maine and Nebraska’s second congressional districts totaling 76 electoral votes.

    As the race stands today, Trump could sweep the entire Toss Up column and still come up two electoral votes short of the 270 needed to win. Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan[citation needed] online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor's offices and the American Presidency....

    The Cook Political Report employs what it calls the Cook Partisan Voting Index (the PVI), which lists each congressional district in the country according to propensity for voting Democratic or Republican.[citation needed] Every four years following a presidential election, the PVI is updated to reflect how Democratic or Republican a district is, based on how that district voted in the presidential election compared with the rest of the country.
  • badbug

    Posts: 866

    Aug 22, 2016 12:54 AM GMT

    It's over anyhow.

    Trump has lost unless some huge media narrative swing happens and even then it might be too late.

    Not sure why the Republicans make their hate of minorities so bloody open, so often. Now Trump is back talking about his police force to eliminate illegals. The man is literally talking about forming his own gestappo hahahaha! Yeah that Latino vote is totally going to the republicans.

    As i said before, this is the end of the republican party. They've just gone too far to crazy town and next election, they'll have someone even more stupid than Trump win the Primary. They've lost control of their racist idiots and Trump is already openly stating that if he loses, it will be because of cheating, clearing the path for the modern racists to elect the next Trump the nominee, thinking the outcome will be different.

    After the next election loss for the Republicans, the demographics which they have ruined utterly will be too far gone to re-coup. And then there will be a party branding change that will fail of course, and then probably another election or two and then just a whole new party. There is too much money at stake for that to be a quick process. It'll be interesting to see where the Koch brothers and those types put their money, because another two failed general elections they will be buying their own party i think, i mean another new party.

  • KissTheSky

    Posts: 2026

    Aug 22, 2016 1:31 AM GMT
    Trump is woefully unqualified to be President but then he really killed his chances by being such a terrible candidate... Just a complete failure. The endless racism, insults, new craziness every day.
    Trump is a danger to our country's security... I'm thankful it looks like he's going to lose so badly.