https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/09/24/a-new-study-says-trump-would-raise-taxes-for-millions-trumps-campaign-insists-he-wont/A new study says Trump would raise taxes for millions. Trump’s campaign insists he won’t.

More than half of America's single parents and one-fifth of its families with children could see their federal income taxes go up under Republican Donald Trump's revamped tax plan, according to a new analysis...

...What Batchelder discovered, for millions of individual Americans, was a math problem in Trump's tax plan as written. The plan eliminates some tax breaks while adding others. Notably, it eliminates what's called the personal deduction, which is currently $4,050 for every member of a household filing taxes. It also raises the standard deduction for all tax filers and creates new benefits to offset the cost of child care. It shuffles and consolidates tax brackets so that the first income to be taxed for anyone is taxed at a 12 percent rate instead of the current 10 percent.

For 8 million families, Batchelder found, the Trump plan's tax breaks would add up to less money than the breaks they receive today. (That was what she called the "conservative" estimate; under a different set of assumptions about the provisions of Trump's plan, Batchelder found more than 10 million families would see tax increases.)

The math is straightforward...

The analysis estimates that more than half of single parents would see tax increases, because Trump eliminates what is called "head of household" filing status, which gives single parents a higher standard deduction and lower rates than they otherwise would have had. Other researchers have also flagged that possibility....

The Tax Foundation estimates that middle-class taxpayers, on average, will see a nearly $500 a year boost in their incomes from Trump's plan, even before factoring in additional economic growth spurred by tax cuts. But an economist at the foundation who conducted that analysis, Alan Cole, said Friday that on a family-by-family basis, Batchelder's estimates sound "plausible," though the foundation has not done similar modeling itself...


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