Most accurate climate change models predict the most alarming consequences

  • metta

    Posts: 44476

    Dec 07, 2017 10:02 PM GMT
    Most accurate climate change models predict the most alarming consequences

    "Under a high-warming scenario in which large emissions continue throughout the century, the models as a whole give a mean warming of 4.3 degrees Celsius (or 7.74 degrees Fahrenheit), plus or minus 0.7 degrees Celsius, for the period between 2081 and 2100, the study noted. But the best models, according to this test, gave an answer of 4.8 degrees Celsius (8.64 degrees Fahrenheit), plus or minus 0.4 degrees Celsius.

    Overall, the change amounted to bumping up the projected warming by about 15 percent."

    http://www.sltrib.com/news/environment/2017/12/07/study-most-accurate-climate-change-models-predict-the-most-alarming-consequences/
  • Element1313

    Posts: 152

    Dec 08, 2017 8:13 PM GMT
    It's illogical and unscientific to assume that climate change is 100% negative. That is our political and superstitious fear.
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    Dec 08, 2017 8:51 PM GMT
    Element1313 saidIt's illogical and unscientific to assume that climate change is 100% negative. That is our political and superstitious fear.


    Change in general is expensive. So unless it’s going to make money it’s probably a bad change to make. Global warming is a bad change overall. There will be winners and losers on the small scale - just like in war. But overall, it’s a big loss for a lot of people and governments.
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    Dec 08, 2017 11:34 PM GMT
    Element1313 said
    It's illogical and unscientific to assume that climate change is 100% negative. That is our political and superstitious fear.

    I'm not aware of anyone making a claim of 100% negative effects. That's a straw man argument you're presenting.

    What is known is that the Earth's temperatures are rapidly rising, along with its oceans levels. But the effects of that on life are not known in localized details, nor totally predictable. Weather patterns and ocean currents will change, that's certain. What will that bring?

    Perhaps a temperate climate to frigid northern Canada, which some might find a good thing. While the coastal US will be inundated and cease to exist. The southern US States may turn to desert. Drought will become commonplace throughout the US, agriculture collapse. This is what some computer models say is most likely to happen.

    But hey, it might not ALL be bad, so let's buy the whole mystery package, right? Let's not take any action to slow down the greenhouse effect caused by air pollution. We'll find out what we've bought after we take it home and open it, with no chance to return it.

    Because yah never know, maybe our own personal part of the world won't be so bad. It's only a bet on our future, after all. The fact that most of the rest of the world will be descending into chaos and ruin won't touch us, if the wheel lands us on a lucky number. icon_rolleyes.gif
  • Suetonius

    Posts: 2114

    Dec 09, 2017 12:08 AM GMT
    art_deco said
    Element1313 said

    But hey, it might not ALL be bad, so let's buy the whole mystery package, right? Let's not take any action to slow down the greenhouse effect caused by air pollution. We'll find out what we've bought after we take it home and open it, with no chance to return it.


    As I remember you're not on the ground floor there. So maybe you'll eventually get to put a dock in at your condo. May imprvoe the value.

    45's Mara Lago, however is sunk - just a matter of time until the lawns are water instead of grass. Couln't happen to a nicer guy.
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    Dec 09, 2017 1:23 AM GMT
    How would you define "most accurate?"
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    Dec 09, 2017 5:28 AM GMT
    So Liberal Democrats solution of higher taxes won't solve global warming.
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    Dec 09, 2017 4:25 PM GMT
    If the flu shot is mandatory for jobs, and I have to tolerate Islam...then let the world be destroyed. I will try to contribute more to global warming.
  • mybud

    Posts: 14090

    Dec 12, 2017 3:00 AM GMT
    Eunuch saidIf the flu shot is mandatory for jobs, and I have to tolerate Islam...then let the world be destroyed. I will try to contribute more to global warming.
    You always seem to turn the threads into something that revolves around you.
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    Dec 13, 2017 1:34 AM GMT
    21122556BE saidHow would you define "most accurate?"


    I wondered that too. It's more correct to say "presumably most accurate". You first must accept the fact how they are correlating model behaviors to the real world is a good approach.

    I also read "The researchers then looked at what the models that best captured current conditions high in the atmosphere predicted was coming. Those models generally predicted a higher level of warming than models that did not capture these conditions as well."

    The first sentence makes no sense.

  • Jan 23, 2018 3:34 PM GMT
    It seems the planet is almost completely fucked anyways oh well, I won't be having any kids so who cares, right?