Same Sex Marriage in the US, now has majority support?

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Apr 30, 2009 2:31 PM GMT
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/04/30/AR2009043001640.html

    Most striking is the sharp shift in public opinion on same-sex marriage. Forty-nine percent said it should be legal for gay people to marry, and 46 percent said it should be illegal. About three years ago, a broad majority said such unions should be illegal (58 percent illegal to 36 percent legal).

    The change is particularly notable given the context in which it is occurring, as several states -- Iowa, Connecticut, New Hampshire and Vermont -- have taken steps in recent weeks to legalize gay marriage. In 2004, a court ruling in Massachusetts legalizing same-sex marriage helped give rise to a slew of anti-gay marriage ballot initiatives around the country that were widely credited with drawing social conservatives to the polls that fall, when former president George W. Bush beat Sen. John F. Kerry (D-Mass.).
    Among independents, there has been a nine-point increase in support for legal gay marriages since 2006, to 52 percent, with strong opposition dropping 10 points over that period.
    among Republicans, about one in five support legal gay marriages, unchanged since 2006.
    In 2006, a third of white Catholics said gay marriage should be legal and 60 percent said it should be illegal. But that has evened out to a 46 percent legal to 47 percent illegal split in the new poll.




  • CAtoFL

    Posts: 834

    Apr 30, 2009 3:10 PM GMT
    Be careful when citing that a 'majority' now supports same sex marriage.

    In any research, there's a margin of error (unless you sample the entire population of respondents you're interested in). 49% to 46% most likely isn't a statistically significant difference (depending upon their sample size). It's probably more accurate to say that there's now a statistically insignificant difference between those supporting and those opposing gay marriage. Shame on the Washington Post for not reporting the margin of error in their data.
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    Apr 30, 2009 3:18 PM GMT
    Where do these statistics come from. How come I wasn't able to participate in a public opinion?
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Apr 30, 2009 3:41 PM GMT
    Ya, those two numbers are within the statistical margin of error. They are in a "statistical tie", as it is known. The reliability of this figure depends on a lot of stuff you can't see without looking at the raw data. Such as sample size, polling method, sample selection method.

    But, the two numbers are getting closer. Just three years ago there was a 30 point spread in averages of polls. Two years ago there was a 20 point spread. Prop-8, like the 2004 election, increased those spreads temporarily. But, it the fact that a poll can have the two numbers in a statistical tie is great news when just a few years ago that was impossible. I suspect this poll is an outlier, but we are getting there. All we have to do is wait for most of the oldest generation to die
  • metta

    Posts: 39167

    Apr 30, 2009 3:45 PM GMT
    This following newly released national poll shows that we still have a lot of work to do:

    National poll: mixed views on gay-rights issues

    Quote:
    56-37 percent, voters said the ban on gays and lesbians serving openly in the military should be repealed


    [quote]
    Quote:
    55-38 percent, voters said they did not want their state to allow same-sex couples to marry.

    However, by 57-38 percent, they favored allowing such couples to form civil unions that would provide marriage-like rights and by 53-40 percent they supported allowing same-sex couples to adopt children. [/quote]

    Much worse than I thought it would be or what previous polls have shown. But this is a national poll. Most polls I have seen were state based.


    Quote:
    50-44 percent, survey respondents rejected the argument that ending discrimination against gays and lesbians is as necessary today as ending discrimination against blacks was in the 1960s.


    Quote:
    50-44 percent, voters supported the federal law allowing states to refuse to recognize same-sex marriages performed in other states.

    These next two is more proof that people do not have empathy for what they are unable to personally relate to.

    [quote]Asked if society is paying too much attention to the needs of gays and lesbians, 49 percent of voters said yes, while 21 percent said there's too little attention and 22 percent said it's "about right." [/quote]

    [quote]Four percent of respondents said they are gay or bisexual, while 63 percent said they have close friends or family members who are gay. Among those with a gay friend or relative, half supported same-sex marriage, while those without a gay friend or relative were opposed by 70-25 percent.
    [/quote]

    More proof that people do not have empathy for what they are unable to personally relate to.

    Link To Story
  • BeingThePhoen...

    Posts: 1157

    Apr 30, 2009 3:47 PM GMT
    I don't partictlarly trust statistics. Statistics can be extremely biased, while seemingly on the level. Any statistic, or most statistics I should say, can be manipulated by someone else to appear to mean something completely different. This is particularly true, if as mentioned earlier, the margin of error is so close.
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    Apr 30, 2009 4:19 PM GMT
    When the numbers move into the 50's, I'll say there is valid surprise. As of yet, we still have a lot of work to do to bring this to the Federal level. Numbers will change in our favor as more states continue to pass or interpret laws in legalizing Gay unions. If not to increase the idea that it's normal, then to prove God won't rain hellfire on those states for doing so.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Apr 30, 2009 4:30 PM GMT
    PSCalif saidBe careful when citing that a 'majority' now supports same sex marriage.

    In any research, there's a margin of error (unless you sample the entire population of respondents you're interested in). 49% to 46% most likely isn't a statistically significant difference (depending upon their sample size). It's probably more accurate to say that there's now a statistically insignificant difference between those supporting and those opposing gay marriage. Shame on the Washington Post for not reporting the margin of error in their data.


    Yes, exactly. That is why I put a icon_question.gif at the end.
  • roadbikeRob

    Posts: 14395

    Apr 30, 2009 9:11 PM GMT
    Poll statistics have a tendency to fluctuate very wildly over a short period of time. Also I question how many people were polled and in what regions of the country did most of the polling occur. You have to be very careful when reading these different polls. However this is good news.
  • Anto

    Posts: 2035

    Apr 30, 2009 10:22 PM GMT
    It shouldn't matter if a majority supports it or not though. If we get marriage because a majority happens to support it then that is a big FAIL for the human rights movement.