If Prop 8 prevails through the CA Supreme Court review/ruling, when to start a new move to reinstate same-sex marriage?

  • Menergy_1

    Posts: 737

    May 19, 2009 6:00 PM GMT
    I received this from the Courage Campaign today:

    When we say the Courage Campaign "empowers more than 700,000 supporters to push for progressive change and full equality in California," we mean it.

    Today, we're putting that people power to the test.

    We need you to help us answer the most important question facing the marriage equality movement in California:

    If the state Supreme Court upholds Proposition 8... should we support going back to the ballot to restore marriage equality to California in 2010 or 2012?

    The Courage Campaign -- along with other organizations committed to restoring marriage equality to California -- is surveying our membership today about this pivotal question. We stand together, hopeful that the California Supreme Court will confirm that fundamental civil rights cannot be stripped away from a minority group at the ballot box. However, we must be prepared to go back to the ballot if the Supreme Court fails to overturn Proposition 8.

    The question is when -- 2010 or 2012? No matter what year an initiative is placed on the ballot, we know that the next election will be close. Ultimately, the outcome will be decided by several complex factors, including turnout, volunteer mobilization, fundraising, competing initiatives, and unpredictable political dynamics.

    We want to hear from the Courage Campaign community today. Click here to read multiple arguments in favor of going to the ballot either in 2010 or 2012 and then vote to tell us which year you support. VOTING DEADLINE: Wednesday, May 20, at 5 p.m. PT:

    http://www.couragecampaign.org/2010or2012

    One person, one vote: If you received this email message directly from the Courage Campaign, you can vote, but only once.

    After the California Supreme Court announces their decision on Prop 8, we will release the results of this special Courage Campaign community survey.

    Until then, thank you for doing everything in your power to restore marriage equality to California.

    Rick Jacobs
    Chair, Courage Campaign

    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    What's your opinion (even if you're not in California - nor am I any more)
  • Menergy_1

    Posts: 737

    May 19, 2009 6:14 PM GMT
    Some additional info/arguments about the timing:

    A Courage Campaign Community Survey
    If the state Supreme Court upholds Proposition 8... should we support going back to the ballot to restore marriage equality to California in 2010 or 2012?

    The Courage Campaign, along with other organizations committed to restoring marriage equality to California, is surveying our membership about going back to the ballot. We stand together, hopeful that the California Supreme Court will confirm that fundamental civil rights cannot be stripped away from a minority group at the ballot box. However, we must be prepared to go back to the ballot if the Supreme Court fails to overturn Proposition 8.
    As we wait for the state Supreme Court's ruling, many people in the marriage equality community are asking "What's next?" and "If we have to go back to the ballot, when will it happen?" No matter what year an initiative is placed on the ballot, we know that the next election will be close, as the March 2009 Public Policy Institute of California poll demonstrated -- with 45% in favor of marriage equality, 49% opposed and 6% undecided.
    However, we know polling alone should not drive the community's decision to go back to the ballot, if the Supreme Court upholds Proposition 8. That's why we want to hear from YOU about when you think the Courage Campaign should support placing an initiative on the ballot -- 2010 or 2012?
    Some arguments for placing a marriage equality initiative on the ballot in 2010:
    We should take advantage of the powerful grassroots activism that has emerged following the passage of Prop 8 by going back sooner rather than later. That energy will dissipate if we wait until 2012.
    By November 2010, we will have full marriage equality in Massachusetts, Connecticut, Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, and very likely in New York and New Jersey. Given these developments, Californians should not wait beyond 2010 to try and restore the right to marry.
    In November 2010, the top of the Democratic ticket -- the gubernatorial candidate -- will support overturning Prop 8 and restoring the right to marry. In 2012, it's questionable whether President Obama will take that position.
    Some arguments for placing a marriage equality initiative on the ballot in 2012:
    We have hundreds of thousands of voters to convince on the issue of marriage equality. Even if we work our hardest, it will take three-plus years to do that work.
    On this issue, time is on our side. By 2012, an even greater number of voters will have come our way. So why risk it in 2010 when we probably have a better chance in 2012.
    We will once again need tens of millions of dollars to run a strong campaign. Given the state of today's economy and the fact that people just gave so much to the No on 8 campaign, we should wait before going right back to the ballot.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    May 19, 2009 6:16 PM GMT
    In 2010 you have a sleepy Senate race and a sure to be hot Gubernatorial race. Depending on the candidates marriage equality could easily win on the ballot.

    Barbara Boxer's approval rating floats around 50% and has for the last three years (I am too lazy to find older data). She beats the shit out of possible opponents Schwartzeneger and Fiorina and her approval rating is so good among Democrats it is unlikely she will have a serious primary. In short, no good GOP opponent, GOP voter turn out will be way down.

    The Governor's race is another story. We really have no idea who will be in the primary and even speculative candidates don't show a clear front runner. So, if no appealing Dem wins the primary Dem turn out in the general will be down, but less so due to Boxer. If no appealing Republican comes out of the primary, GOP turn out in the general will be down.

    The pro-equality faction and the anti-equality faction is going to show up. It is the people in the middle that will decide the issue and their participation in the two big races will change the chances of passing.

    Either way, organizations in CA better be starting grassroots efforts in minority communities if they want this to pass.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    May 19, 2009 7:01 PM GMT
    Too little, too late. Where were these "700,000 supporters" during the Prop 8 battle? The issue is over, for at least 5 to 10 years.

    The California Supreme Court will uphold Prop 8, and maybe allow the gay marriages performed before that enactment to stand, if we are lucky.

    Courage Campaign indeed! Where was their courage 10 months ago? This is so pathetic, typical of the ineffectiveness of gay leadership. We couldn't courage ourselves out of a paper bag.