Answer To The Survey(Older Brother Effect)

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 04, 2009 2:18 PM GMT
    So finally I collected all the data and had this chart ready to show you what the pattern seems to be at least on Real Jock Gay Fitness Health and Life. I had no post my personal answer to this survey so here it goes:

    1 - Right handed.
    2 - 1 older brother(never born).

    4431_88803243679_714653679_1780164_70771

    This Survey is about "The Brother Effect Theory" and how this supposely might be useful to predict the chances of a child to be born gay or straight. The escence of this theory says that for every older brother we have, our chances of being gay increase by one third, older sisters make no difference and those boys whose brains are organized on a left handed fashion are not affected by this theory either. So, only right handed guys with older brothers would experience a higher probablity of being born gay directly proportional to the amount of older brothers.

    The results are quite interesting, I got 79 responses(mine included) from which I had to ignore 3 that didnt answer the question directly but refered to something else about this topic and 1 repeated answer from TheGuyNextDoor. So 75 valid responses in total ;).

    First thing I found extremely interesting is the fact that according to the OB theory most gay males are supposed to be right handed since the left handed ones would have the same chances of being gay as the rest of the population(around 2%). Based on this statement I was expecting a reduced number of left handed guys. In the world, about 11% of the male population is left handed. On this survey 13.3% realjockers were left handed and other 4% were forced to be right handed during their childhood, meaning that a total of 17.3% of the guys on RJ who replied to this survey were left handed. Apparently totally failed with this prediction.

    Ok, so that's for the right/left handed "assumption", how about those with older brothers? Well, it seems like 43% percent of us were supposely affected by this theory. However I dont see ANYTHING that can prove such thing, this is just a mere number that to me it doesn't say absolutly anything. How so? Well, what I havent told you is that 21.3% were the oldest of their sibblings and a 30.7% were only-childs or no brothers at all(sisters do not count). According to the OBE this data shows that 52% of the participants on this survey had a minimum 2% chances of being born gay just as the rest of the population; what are the odds?

    Personally I think this theory(based on the sample analized on this survey) doesn't say nor determines anything about homesexual males whatsoever. There is a high number of guys with older brothers for sure, but that doesn't say much since the odds of having an older brother are way higher than the odds of being the eldest one. It's also true that probably comparing this number to another result taken from straight males will be higher on gay guys, but there's no way to prove your straight sample isn't biased, let alone based on the assumptions made on this video where they "detect" a gay guy analyzing their afeminate behaviour. You can be 99.9% sure that those who said they were gay are actually gay, but those who said they were straight might be bisexual or homosexual perfectly(no matter how much confidentiality they promised).


    Interesting things:

    RockBiter - 2 younger brothers, both of them straight.

    TexDef - 4 younger brothers, all of them straight

    Dyesburg - 5 younger brothers no older brothers(He didnt specify how many of them were gay).

    I know the older brother effect is trying to establish a pattern and not necessarily an "exact science" we can see that in the twins on the video whose chances of being gay were exactly the same however one was and the other one wasnt. However, as TheGuyNextDoor referenced from Albert Einstein :

    "Not everything that can be counted, counts, and not everything that counts
    can be counted"
  • calibro

    Posts: 8888

    Jun 04, 2009 2:43 PM GMT
    so it is my parent's fault i'm gay! icon_biggrin.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 04, 2009 5:34 PM GMT
    calibro saidso it is my parent's fault i'm gay! icon_biggrin.gif


    Wait... are you saying you're a product of a fault? Don't ever sell yourself short. icon_smile.gif

    Thanks for sharing the findings, Charlitos. The OB theory compares the percentage of gays among males (of all sexual orientations) with one older brother, two older brothers and three or more older brothers. The occurrence(or rather, percentage) of gays in each group goes up in groups when there are more older brothers. It has no bearing on the 'odds' that you mentioned.
    So to conduct the survey to prove/disprove the theory would require you to ask the question outside gay websites. Otherwise, your result will not have anything to do with gays but will only show correlation to the number of people in the world having one, two, three older brother and so on. Good attempt though. Keep it up. ;)
  • Delivis

    Posts: 2332

    Jun 04, 2009 5:50 PM GMT
    Try not to draw any conclusions from this, it is a fun little experiment, but hardly a scientific study..icon_smile.gif
  • dh__

    Posts: 143

    Jun 04, 2009 5:52 PM GMT
    lol cool project man kudos
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 04, 2009 7:24 PM GMT
    I have an older brother; and he is gay as well.
  • DiverScience

    Posts: 1426

    Jun 04, 2009 7:30 PM GMT
    My younger brother is straight.
  • steven_patter...

    Posts: 144

    Jun 04, 2009 7:34 PM GMT
    Add me to the list at the end of the original posting: I'm the eldest of three brothers and one sister & I'm the only one who's gay.
  • cesarin03

    Posts: 38

    Jun 04, 2009 7:35 PM GMT
    interesting results Charlitos!

    Did you per chance determine if your sample size was big enough to be significant? Either way its always fun to take some theory put out there and determine if a personally designed experiment helps validate or disprove it.

    -Cesar
  • MSUBioNerd

    Posts: 1813

    Jun 04, 2009 8:47 PM GMT
    This isn't the way to run statistics on this sort of thing.

    The general theoretical prediction is that there is a certain baseline probability of a given male fetus developing into a gay man, which increases based on the number of previous male pregnancies that the birth mother has carried. In order to do data analysis on this, you would need:

    1) A large sample of males whose birth mother had had a given number of previous male pregnancies (a separate set each for 0, 1, 2, 3, etc previous pregnancies of male fetuses). This is essential in order to make appropriate null hypotheses.

    2) Information on whether or not the focal male turned out to be gay.

    You've got the information for point 2, but not for point 1.

    By looking at just gay males and then looking to see whether or not they have older brothers, and if so how many, you're not including general demographic information about how many males in general have 1 older brother, 2 older brothers, etc, nor are you looking at the relative frequencies of homosexuality in these different categories. For example, 31% (significant figures; you don't have a large enough count to really call it 30.7%) of the responses here were from only children. If it turns out that 40% of men are only children, for example, then this is consistent with being an only child decreasing the probability of being a gay man. If only 15% of men are only children, on the other hand, this is not what would be expected (in all cases, assuming there wasn't a previous male pregnancy that resulted in stillbirth, spontaneous abortion after the testosterone release of a developing male, or an older brother being placed for adoption). Without the baseline demographic information, we can't test to see whether what we see here is different from what is expected if birth order plays no role.

    Further, by starting explicitly with a sample of gay males, you're quite possibly introducing bias into the study, rather than looking at a random collection of individuals. That occurs all the time with surveys in which people choose to participate, rather than being approached at random.

    As it is, you've got a number of anecdotes, not data.

    I'm not trying to pick on you, but proper stats (though capable of telling you a lot) can be rather difficult to do, and require substantially greater rigor than this survey.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 04, 2009 8:59 PM GMT
    My younger brother is straight and I have no older siblings. I wonder how many respondents were born left handed and retrained to write with their right hand, which happened to me. It was a pretty common practice up until the mid-eighties.

    One of the most interesting articles I've read about homosexuality was in Psychology Today and proposed numerous theories, as they posit there is no one single reason homosexuality manifests in a species. They had many biological and behavioral explanations and stated that there really isn't a single reason out there. It kind of made sense.

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 04, 2009 8:59 PM GMT
    i wish i had a hot older brother icon_smile.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Jun 05, 2009 5:44 AM GMT
    TheGuyNextDoor said
    surfm0nst3r saidi wish i had a hot older brother icon_smile.gif

    Cool, you can have mine,,, he's a knock out. Walking in the shadows of a HOT older brother is tougher than it sounds...
    Then I'll trade in that baby of the family badge for an Only Child card... They get all the lovin' hehe...icon_cool.gif


    Try a hotter younger brother. icon_cry.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 02, 2010 9:28 PM GMT
    i have 2 older brothers,but im lefthanded...

    icon_confused.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 02, 2010 9:33 PM GMT
    I have an older brother, but we were both adopted from different birth mothers.
    By birth, I have no siblings.
    Should I turn in my gay card now? icon_razz.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 02, 2010 9:51 PM GMT
    @ MSUBioNerd:

    You might be right from a proper statistics procedural point of view, but as Charlitos already points out any baseline for a study like this is bound to be inaccurate simply because people will lie about whether they're gay or straight. The fact that he took his numbers here from RJ probably make them way more dependable than if they were "truly random".

    Unless you can introduce a variable that factors in the amount of liars your numbers will never add up. And if you want to introduce a variable X for the liars, you're basically playing with game theory (I guess that from a math point of view the assumption that all players are rational is somewhat equal to the assumption here that people won't lie) instead of doing statistical research.

    What might be more interesting is if you run these numbers against where people are on the Kinsey scale - again assuming there are no liars in the group - and see if it makes any difference. Who knows, there might be something behind it, it's probably just way more complex than we can capture in relatively simple metrics.

    Anyway, this thing comes dangerously close to nazis measuring noses. If I had to put my money somewhere, I think the search for the gay gene is bound to produce better results.

    What would you do anyway if you're in the hospital, and the doctor takes you aside, and tells you "did you know that the child your wife is about to bear has a 26.8% probability of being gay?"
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 02, 2010 10:05 PM GMT
    I was triplet but lost 2 sisters childbirth. I am only child on my mother. I have half siblings on my father's sideicon_neutral.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 02, 2010 10:31 PM GMT
    the average statistician drowns in water whtch are 10 inch depth
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 02, 2010 10:36 PM GMT
    jusTom saidthe average statistician drowns in water whtch are 10 inch depth
    But according to a recent survey, 53% of statisticians who drown in 10 inches of water will survive 87% of the time, if their statistics are more than 48% correct 92% of the time.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 02, 2010 10:42 PM GMT
    one brother...six sisters...one of those Mormons.....


    well..not any more.


    Now when the angel Moroni blows his horn...well...it's somewhat different.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Sep 02, 2010 10:44 PM GMT
    paulflexes said
    jusTom saidthe average statistician drowns in water whtch are 10 inch depth
    But according to a recent survey, 53% of statisticians who drown in 10 inches of water will survive 87% of the time, if their statistics are more than 48% correct 92% of the time.



    you are worse then me icon_smile.gif
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Feb 25, 2013 11:31 PM GMT
    This was 3 years ago but I thought it was really interesting. I found it today when someone mentioned it in an argument & I was looking for further evidence to provide some closure on the matter since I had not heard much about it & didn't bother reading into it much because it didn't really apply to me since I'm a bi lefty middle child with 2 brothers. That should have had more periods, but oh well. If it is true the only thing I can really think of is 2 studies I heard about where a mother who has more testosterone is more likely to bear children who happen to be boys. The other states that women who have baby boys are likely to have male dna lingering in their brain. The mother and fetus have to pretty much work together, when the baby craves so does she & the testosterone in her body is probably having an effect on the baby & his dna. But I can only see the kid having high amounts of testosterone like his mother and his male dna being further supported by the leftover dna in her brain. She may be attracted to males but I can't see how that would have an effect on the baby being gay since she's straight. Just the because she's attracted to penis, the kids going to grow up craving cock as well /?? :S My mother ate a lot of salads when I was in her stomach, but I'm more of an sandwich, oatmeal and rice guy myself.
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Feb 25, 2013 11:41 PM GMT
    Yes, this theory has been around for a long time. My ex pointed it out to me while we were married. I should have discussed it with her more then because it was another 15 years before I came out. The reason she brought it up was because I'm the youngest of 5 brothers. To my knowledge, none of them is gay. I fit the pattern and the results make me a statistic. Even as hard as I tried, I could not live as a str8 man, a part of me just would let go of who I really am.
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    Feb 25, 2013 11:50 PM GMT
    eb925guy saidYes, this theory has been around for a long time. My ex pointed it out to me while we were married. I should have discussed it with her more then because it was another 15 years before I came out. The reason she brought it up was because I'm the youngest of 5 brothers. To my knowledge, none of them is gay. I fit the pattern and the results make me a statistic. Even as hard as I tried, I could not live as a str8 man, a part of me just would let go of who I really am.


    That's pretty interesting, thanks for the reply as opposed to "thanks for bumping a 3 year old thread asshole".

    You're a lot stronger for being honest about who you really and keeping yourself intact. Congrats!
  • Lukehiker

    Posts: 161

    Feb 26, 2013 12:02 AM GMT
    1 older bro(Straight)
    2 older sisters(straight)
    2 younger sisters(1 gay, 1 Bi)
    and me: gay

    I never put much stock in the "older brother" theory. My mom's siblings include 4 bothers, and my dad is the youngest of 3 bothers; none are gay. Then there is my Grandmother's(dad's mom) brothers: 5 brothers, none gay; granted it was a different time, but uncle George is about as homophobic as people Can get.

    On top of all that, my Boy Scout troop leader had 9 boys(no girls); I went to High School with the youngest 4, and met the older 5 as well, all were either straight, or very deep in the closet; though I did get some twinges from Neil(#6) they weren't much to go on.

    I always felt the theory, that the mother's body attacked the fetus during the second exposure of testosterone, lacked any logical cause. The placenta, amniotic fluid, and half a dozen other systems, are all aimed at protecting the child from Exactly that sort of thing. If a woman who is HIV+ can give birth to an HIV- baby, despite the exchange of blood flow between them, then there must be a disconnect in the Older Brother Theory.