TOYOTA EXECUTIVE - We have about 10 to 12 years left before peak oil

  • metta

    Posts: 39167

    Dec 30, 2009 10:12 PM GMT
    TOYOTA EXECUTIVE - We have about 10 to 12 years left before peak oil

    That is not much time to prepare and change the way we live.



    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yVEZE2vM2oM&feature=sub
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    Dec 30, 2009 10:16 PM GMT
    Wow. icon_eek.gif
  • metta

    Posts: 39167

    Feb 09, 2011 4:54 PM GMT


    Wikileaks Cable: Saudi Oil Reserves Exaggerated By 40 Percent

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/09/wikileaks-saudi-oil-reserves-exaggerated_n_820641.html
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    Feb 09, 2011 5:04 PM GMT
    That's great they are planning for a future not dependent on oil, which is what he is saying his company is planning for. However, he's not saying it will happen and he has no data to back it up, he's an executive at a car company not an oil company (an oil exec saying this would be more profound). He most likely has a base knowledge of the oil industry and is speculating. This is void of fact and means nothing. It is good they are planning for such a sinareo, but companies do that all the time, doesn't mean it's right.
  • rnch

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    Feb 09, 2011 5:05 PM GMT
    opinions are like 'roids, everyone has 'em, some are larger and smell more than others.....
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    Feb 09, 2011 5:08 PM GMT
    Scare tactic; he just wants to intimidate their lemming followers into considering one of their lame ass hybrids.
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    Feb 09, 2011 5:28 PM GMT
    when the big energy companies (or those who control them) seriously start betting on different horses, in terms of investing in/selling alternative energy sources, is when the oil is running out.

    and I do think the smarter companies are looking into which horses to bet on as we speak.
    would be stupid of them not to research their options and just hope for oil to keep popping up somewhere.

    anyway, good riddance! I say the sooner we're forced to use cleaner energy, the better. and it looks like force by necessity is the only way to get there.
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    Feb 09, 2011 5:48 PM GMT
    I highly doubt that we will run out of oil after peak oil. We will never be able to produce something as efficiently or inexpensively as gasoline in the near future. These are just scare tactics; he wants you to buy his hybrids. When oil will run out depends on how much you want to pay to extract from new oil.They keep finding new reserves almost everyday. Look at Russia.
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    Feb 09, 2011 5:52 PM GMT
    All the automobile manufacturers are moving to pure electric cars. Small ones at first, affordable for the market segment most likely to buy them, not putting too much company capital into this technology as they learn more about manufacturing them.

    But before long another problem will develop: the power grid won't be able to handle the added demand. Ford already anticipates this with innovative power management software in the new electric Focus coming out. But eventually the electrical transmission system will be overloaded, and the power generating stations unable to handle the demand.

    And of course we're just moving energy production from one place to another, from internally in our cars with gasoline or diesel, to a power station that generates electricity. Using what fuel? We still have to address that issue.

    (And I might also pose the rather awkward question of how do apartment and condo dwellers charge their electric cars? Whole parking lots would have to be wired for plug-ins, and somehow metered to each specific residence, and the charging points individually locked and secured to prevent electricity theft. The answer might come with quick charge battery technologies that can accomplish that in under 10 minutes, allowing for quick stops at "electric stations" and taking little more time than to fill a gas tank. But until that happens I see electric vehicles only practical for house owners)
  • rnch

    Posts: 11525

    Feb 09, 2011 5:52 PM GMT
    where did this toyota dude get his crystal ball from?

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    Feb 09, 2011 6:05 PM GMT
    I have read and reread this about 50 times since I was born. There are books written about it. "Science " is the new superstition.
  • tallchris

    Posts: 121

    Feb 09, 2011 6:24 PM GMT
    Why is anyone surprised by this?
  • dhinkansas

    Posts: 764

    Feb 09, 2011 6:26 PM GMT
    No sh*t. Any natural resource will run dry at some point.
    Car makers will only change when forced to do it. This should have been in the plans 40 years ago.
  • tallchris

    Posts: 121

    Feb 09, 2011 6:31 PM GMT
    Art_Deco saidAnd of course we're just moving energy production from one place to another, from internally in our cars with gasoline or diesel, to a power station that generates electricity. Using what fuel? We still have to address that issue.


    Yes that was my first reaction but it doesn't take much research to find out that power stations are much more efficient than internal combustion engines in cars (even when you take into account the inefficiencies of power lines and batteries). So electric cars use much less oil if powered by electricity from oil-fired power stations than cars fuelled directly by gasoline.
  • tallchris

    Posts: 121

    Feb 09, 2011 6:50 PM GMT
    axbuddy saidThat's great they are planning for a future not dependent on oil, which is what he is saying his company is planning for. However, he's not saying it will happen and he has no data to back it up, he's an executive at a car company not an oil company (an oil exec saying this would be more profound). He most likely has a base knowledge of the oil industry and is speculating. This is void of fact and means nothing. It is good they are planning for such a sinareo, but companies do that all the time, doesn't mean it's right.


    Actually, the experts, including the chief economist of the International Energy Agency, do agree on the rough range. The predictions are of course only very approximate, and seem to range from around now to around 20 years' time for peak oil production (which is of course not the same as the oil running out). 10-12 years is in the middle of the range. For what little it is worth, my own feeling is that ever higher prices and ever more clever technology will push the date into the future.

    It would be far better for later generations (and many of the guys on here) if we stopped using so much of the stuff now.

    See http://www.economist.com/node/15065719
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    Feb 09, 2011 7:05 PM GMT
    Alpha13 saidI have read and reread this about 50 times since I was born. There are books written about it. "Science " is the new superstition.


    I don't know what you've been reading, but "Peak Oil" was invented by a Shell Oil engineer in the mid 50's and has been used ever since to accurately predict oil output from wells, fields, and nations. You can't argue with success. As for applying it to global production, that introduces more variables and thus it becomes more difficult to use the theory with similar levels of accuracy, but I think you'd be hard pressed to find a serious petroleum engineer that disagrees with the fundamental assumptions behind peak oil.

    Now, if you want to take the valid disagreements about which particular year it will occur on a global basis and then conclude that it's all worthless "superstition" I would note that you're using logic that places you in the same category of people who don't believe in evolution or climate change or gravitation or whatever because there are legitimate disagreements amongst professionals in each field about the details and the outer bounds of each respective theory.

    But in the meantime, it doesn't seem that senior executives of multibillion dollar auto companies share your skepticism.
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    Feb 09, 2011 7:31 PM GMT
    Peak oil (production) is not the same thing as running an oil well dry.

    It is the end of cheap and easy to get oil; where it begins to cost more energy per barrel of oil consumed to per barrel extracted the remaining reserves.

    There will always be oil in the ground and under the sea.

    But plenty of coal to liquefy (Fischer-Tropsch) and Methane Clathrates to harvest, as well as several trillion tonnes of Shale Oil in the US and Canadian Rockies.

    Now if there were ways to harvest hurricane/cyclone energy... that would be awesome.
  • rnch

    Posts: 11525

    Feb 09, 2011 8:11 PM GMT
    yourname2000 saidI'm stunned that some of you think this is a hoax.

    All of the newscasts went into great detail on this when oil prices exploded a couple of years ago...but I guess you've forgotten. T. Boone Pickens (or whatever his name is) campaigned on this during the last election, vowing to support whichever candidates saw the wisdom of his plan to reduce US dependence on 'hostile to America' sources of oil. He's an oil man...was on Jon Stewart and every news station and talk show talking about world oil production and shift to natural gas (YOU GUYS ---the USA-- ARE THE SAUDI ARABIA of natural gas). And there have been a ton of documentaries on the subject --debating only the year this will happen-- and they've had oil men on them. Besides which, you don't think an executive at Toyota has a vested interest in knowing the availability of oil? icon_eek.gif

    Oil came from dinosaurs. Y'all do know that, right? --made any new dinosaurs lately? The whole reason we're even talking about things like deep water drilling and drilling in ANWR, more drilling in the gulf, etc is because the easy oil is pretty much gone. Is there more oil in the arctic that we don't even know about today? --probably. Will it cost double to get it out of the ground compared to today's oil? --most definitely. The whole reason the tar sands in Alberta suddenly became viable is because we're desperate (aside from it being incredibly dirty oil, it has few of the qualities of "sweet oil" and doesn't refine the same or produce gasoline as well.)

    And for you guys in Texas who are (obviously smoking better stuff than I am in Vancouver)...do you need an oil man to tell you that oil wells don't last forever? --don't you have dead wells pretty much everywhere you look down there? Are we making more land somewhere? --were there dinosaurs on the moon?

    And as to the rate that we've gone through our oil up to today, do we not now have a greater population burning oil in the West? China and India want to leapfrog their societies up to the West's standard of living...add 2 billion people who now want more oil. So, even with all of our efficiencies, we're very likely to be burning oil at a greater rate tomorrow than we were yesterday.

    Logically, these are pretty simple concepts. The year of peak oil may be --and is-- in debate. That a point will come when we can't affordably extract oil from the ground is not.

    What isn't even discussed here, and what will really get the world wars going, is how intertwined current farming chemistry is to oil. Pesticides, herbicides, fertilizers are all made from oil. Food production yields are likely to go down and costs of production and delivery will go up as oil becomes scarcer. Nations will starve and their peoples will force their governments to take action. Nations as drowning men...grasping at any solution desperately without care for anyone else.

    Planning seems like a good idea to me....if it ends up being 2050 rather than 2020, good. (I'll be dead, lol.)



    yn: smoke more, pontificate less. icon_lol.gif
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    Feb 09, 2011 9:31 PM GMT
    Yes, we can switch to electric cars or other alternative fuels, but...cars as they sit today are still produced with so much effin oil byproducts in them we'll never get away from it! All the plastics, tires, everything is made from oil! The peak oil movement has been around since the 70's and many more scientists are beginning to realize that they're right. There is only so much oil on the planet, and the way that we're using it is absurd!
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    Feb 09, 2011 9:33 PM GMT
    I really shouldn't be participating in these discussions, since I have nearly 500 people on forum block, so I'm only hearing at most half the of chatter, but I have to add one thing...

    I always hear about how there's tons more oil out there than people think. Either it's known and not discussed, or it's "secret" in the back pocket of an oil company or oil state.

    I accept ALL these arguments about additional oil. All of them. Public. Secret. Real. Unreal. Planetary and extra planetary. No argument.

    Even with that as a base for discussion, there still remains the issue of economics. Any discussion of the economics of oil is pointless if you exclude economics (and just focus on geology). The point is that for all the oil out there, known and unknown, there's also an associated cost to extract it.

    The Athabasca oil sands weren't economically viable until 2006/2007 price levels, even tho they've been a known quantity since the early 1700s. Only at $80+ per barrel at the well head did started people talking about a "second Saudi Arabia." All fine and good, except for the basic economics of price elasticity. Those same well prices resulted in California formulated gas that was hitting $5 per gallon.

    Previous economists' estimates of the price elasticity of gas had predicted a price of $7/gal to shift US consumer auto spending habits away from their SUV guzzlers. Turns out that estimate was high. It was actually around $4. The SUV market collapsed, along with Ford, GM, and Chrysler. This shift toward more efficient vehicles in turn created downward pressure on prices (i.e. reduced demand). This balance between supply and demand and the equilibrium price that keeps them in balance is fundamental to the discussion. It's not just the existence of oil. It's the price at which it can be extracted, the resulting price at the pump, and that price's effect on the supply / demand equilibrium.

    Saying there's a ton of supply without factoring the price of extraction and the effects of that price on production is just as fallible as people running around talking about the imminent collapse of society when the supply of oil "runs out."

    This relationship between supply, cost of extraction, and the resulting level of production is what Marion King Hubbert was modeling back in 1956 and he created a model that, again, has been proven over and over to be accurate in predicting oil production. He never ever said oil would "run out". He did create a very successful model that predicted production, however.

    Again, just to be explicit: Peak Oil doesn't say anything about oil reserves -- it predicts oil PRODUCTION -- this is something very different from reserves.
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    Feb 09, 2011 9:40 PM GMT
    heybreaux saidOne last thing...anyone have an idea what resources go into batteries, for instance the in lithium ion batteries? Any idea of the size of that resource, any idea what environmental effects of rare earth metals like lead, nickel and lithium? icon_biggrin.gif


    Yes, lithium is a limited resource, and as a result, is not a viable long-term solution to battery composition. At this transient moment, considering current economics, lithium makes the most cost effective batteries (e.g. A123's formulation). However, long term, it's not a viable option, given a global outlook.

    Your point is?

    That electric vehicles are doomed because we haven't yet found the best storage solution? That current technology is all there is? No more breakthrus? That somehow lithium formulations are the end of the line of research and development in storage? That the first release of a product for a limited market is a failure because it's not capable of taking over the entire global market right out of the door?

    Help me out here.
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    Feb 09, 2011 10:01 PM GMT
    heybreaux said

    Yes! The costs involved in extracting shale, sands, etc. are more than drilling for oil, but with 5x multiple on the supply at this higher price, what will the prices do then? Or will the entire supply/ demand curve shift globally? The global growth coming most from China/ India is raising prices, so is high price here to stay, you bet. India has also built the worlds largest refinery that is *not subject" the the Clean Air Act here in the US. Supply is good until 2080 or more, beyond that --I don't give a fuck. But you are correct it will come at a cost. Then there is Purchasing power parity and inflation, rising incomes. Which nations will win?


    I must say the frequency with which you angrily "don't give a fuck" and call out people as "full of shit" with rather imprecise and generalized counter arguments reduces my motivation to participate.

    But to summarize -- we both agree there is a lot of oil out there. We both agree there is an associated cost. But we seem to both have different formulas for predicting what happens to production under differing demand and price assumptions.

    I place my bets with Mr Hubbard since he has an almost perfect track record. I don't exactly know what your formula is, since you keep talking in lists of questions without providing any clue as to what answers you think are appropriate.

    You also keep using the word "supply", which makes it seem like we're talking past each other. Peak oil is talking about production, not supply.
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    Feb 09, 2011 10:03 PM GMT
    heybreaux saidMy point is that oil will be among the many, and its not in short supply. Alternatives are going to become numerous. Numerous breakthrus, numerous sources.


    Well that statement is now sufficiently general that I have a hard time finding any fault with it.
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    Feb 09, 2011 10:07 PM GMT
    Don't worry about it. The found more out west to take the place of it. icon_smile.gif
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    Feb 09, 2011 10:13 PM GMT
    No offense but people who think oil is abundant are not very well informed. I grew up in Alberta, Canada. We have the worlds second largest oil reserves after Saudi Arabia. Until 10 years ago it was not cost effective to produce our oilsands oil. This is because formerly it took about 1 barrel of oil to produce about 80. Now, in Alberta, at the very same time you are checking your Real Jock profile, it takes about 1 barrel of oil to produce 2 barrels of oil. No offense, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to demonstrate that clearly there is a shortage of something...most likely it is oil.

    I agree with the mention of Hubbards Peak, this estimation has proven correct in the past. According to his estimates I believe we passed the peak in 2010. Also, Gulf Oil countries have had the same researves for over 20 years while continuing to produce oil dailly. This, without massive exploration finds, is impossible. Additionally, yes Russia has a lot of oil, but a large majority of that is in the ocean. Frankly, you need only look at the Gulf of Mexico circa 2010 to see how precarious the oil extraction in deep ocean is.