"If McCain vs. Obama, 28% of Clinton Backers Go for McCain"

• GeorgeNJ
  
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  Mar 27, 2008 2:09 AM GMT

  From the Gallup Poll analysis:
  
  "The data suggest that the continuing and sometimes fractious Democratic nomination fight could have a negative impact for the Democratic Party in next November's election. A not insignificant percentage of both Obama and Clinton supporters currently say they would vote for McCain if he ends up running against the candidate they do not support.
  
  "Clinton supporters appear to be somewhat more reactive than Obama supporters. Twenty-eight percent of the former indicate that if Clinton is not the nominee -- and Obama is -- they would support McCain. That compares to 19% of Obama supporters who would support McCain if Obama is not the nominee -- and Clinton is."
  
  http://www.gallup.com/poll/105691/McCain-vs-Obama-28-Clinton-Backers-McCain.aspx

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  Mar 27, 2008 3:03 AM GMT

  I noticed an article about this today on another site, but I was also reading that Dean and other heads of the Dem party are planning to push for an end to the rancor from the Clinton side in particular by the end of April. Do you think that those diehards who say they won't vote for Obama would hold out all the way to November if the Dem Party as a whole reconciles? I hope that for party unity they would vote for whichever the nominee becomes, whether Obama or Clinton.

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• roadbikeRob
  
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  Mar 27, 2008 11:50 PM GMT

  It sounds like if the Clinton supporters do not get their way with the democratic presidential nomination, 28% of them will vote for another GOP warmonger. That is all we need is four more years of continuing a brutal war in Iraq and hundreds of billions of tax dollars down the drain. Oh well life goes on.

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  Mar 28, 2008 12:04 AM GMT

  This is something I've been worried about for a while, and is yet another reason why we need to hurry up and wrap up our parties nomination.

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  Mar 28, 2008 12:13 AM GMT

  I don't buy those numbers. It will be considerably different if (when Hillary finally concedes) Clinton were to emphatically rally support around Obama when she pulls out. I don't see her as a VP, and that's the only thing that will raise her profile (refortifying the party).

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  Mar 28, 2008 3:51 AM GMT

  There is only one race going on right now, and that is Obama V Clinton. McCain doesn't even enter to those numbers. THe mutual resentment in both parities will dissipate when the race is McCain v Obama.

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• HndsmKansan
  
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  Mar 28, 2008 4:02 AM GMT

  MunchingZombie said THe mutual resentment in both parities will dissipate when the race is McCain v Obama.

  
  
  
  Well clearly there is no "parity" as you say above....
  especially if the race is Clinton vs. McCain. At least there won't be a "experience" deficit.

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  Mar 28, 2008 4:08 AM GMT

  Party as in Obama's camp or HRC's camp, not as in political party. Poor choice of words on my behalf. ^_^

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• HndsmKansan
  
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  Mar 28, 2008 4:10 AM GMT

  MunchingZombie saidParty as in Obama's camp or HRC's camp, not as in political party. Poor choice of words on my behalf. ^_^

  
  
  
  
  You know I was just kidding around with you Zombie
  

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  Mar 28, 2008 4:18 AM GMT

  Ha! Sorry Kansan. It must be beddy bye time as my sense of humor is broken
  
  kisses

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  Mar 28, 2008 4:49 AM GMT

  there's no way even the most die-hard clinton or obama supporter would vote for mccain just out of spite... then again, the stupidity of america never ceases to amaze me.

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  Mar 28, 2008 5:04 AM GMT

  Ya never know, Nader may have a real shot this year. I don't think the Democratic party wants to win in the fall. It looks to me like they're intentionally throwing the game.
  

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  Mar 28, 2008 4:54 PM GMT

  Organizing the Democratic party is like "Herding Cats".
  (Quote from LBJ about the Senate)

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  Mar 28, 2008 5:40 PM GMT

  theres a major factor we've not placed enough importance on so far in our discussion here. That is-- that once the rangling is over and the dems have a nominee, I think you'll see that the dispicable presidency of bush/cheney will be a HUGE UNIFYING FACTOR, and many republicans are so upset over what the bushies have messed up that they are voting democratic. Also take note that when the primaries were being conducted/voted there were often more than double the actual votes in the democratic primaries as there were in the repugnican primaries. That is a big difference in interest shown from the public. Also obama has way outdone any of the other candidates, from either side with private citizen donations. I am very hopeful that these factors will put the democratic nominee in the WHITEHOUSE, and end this mess left by the bushies. (but like some of you have pointed out the american voting public is hard to predict, so many just pay no attention and believe whatever the major medias tell them)

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  Mar 28, 2008 5:43 PM GMT

  John43620 saidOrganizing the Democratic party is like "Herding Cats".
  (Quote from LBJ about the Senate)

  
  
  Here's another one - I don't know the source and I'm paraphrasing: "The Democratic Party has a knack for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory."

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  Mar 28, 2008 5:47 PM GMT

  I think that whay you described realifedad, is a certain possibility. And, there are a lot of these anomalies of large-scale voting that will alter the results. There are factors of age, experience, weather, demographics, etc.
  
  It's so much a guessing game that they invented the science of guessing: statistics. However, when you're dealing with large populations (ie. American citizens) of various levels of intelligence and cognition, and incorporating biases of geography, media, simple demographics (blacks for blacks), there are literally thousands of variables.
  
  2008, like many elections before it, is an election of variables. But...taking into account how you're expected to vote based on your calculated variables, there is still a large chance you'll vote differently.
  
  This is why I never liked politics...there's so much unknown. It's like solving for "X" with no constants.

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  Mar 28, 2008 5:56 PM GMT

  zrs106 ---- you are so right !!! the variables seem endless. I'm ashamed of my area, and even more to say it but your variable you brought up brings it to light. Where I'm from there are very very few minorities in the population, and I have had several diehard democratics going back 3 generations of dems, who say they will not vote for a black man. No-matter what amount of inteligence Obama has, local ignorance like this will not be won over to vote for him. Its very sad !!!

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  Mar 28, 2008 6:09 PM GMT

  Definately, and equally as attrocious is the African-Americans who automatically vote for Obama because he is black. I'm not sure if it's worse to vote for or against someone based on color of skin. There's nothing worse than people who choose skin color over candidacy issues. Oye vey, it boils my blood.
  
  Thankfully, as a caucasian, I've never had to deal with the idea of endorsing someone based on skin color. Yet, I imagine it's something you'd have to internally struggle with. I know that if a gay man were to run for high office, I'd have to get my shit together and realize that voting for someone because he is gay doesn't make it him the "right" or "best" choice for me.
  
  Anyway, we're getting off topic.

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