Is the race card a joker or a deuce?

  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 11, 2008 7:36 PM GMT
    I would like all Democratskis to pay special attention to this if you please.

    All you Repubs can pass on this one and go somewhere else to praise your candidate of choice. What you have to write here is not at issue.

    When I was hard at work at this time of the year in 1992 working for the Clinton campaign I learned that volunteers in the campaign are of the utmost importance. This is the time when volunteers are calling potential voters, making a list and getting it right. Later this list is compiled to get out the vote on Election Day. Of course, only voters that have indicated they would vote for the democratic candidates are called. That year, I must have talked to thousands of voters, some of them republicans, some independents, but mostly democrats since I lived in a heavily democratic district. It was actually a lot of fun hearing people rant on about why they were going to vote a certain way.

    The reason why I have written about this is because, even though Obama seems to be getting ahead in the polls lately, you can not become overly confident and complacent. If you feel so strongly about Obama as you have indicated in the last few week’s threads, then please, pretty please (I am begging you now) get your ass down to your local democratic headquarters and volunteer to make some calls. This may sound like the hardest thing in the world to do and my first reaction to it was blah, can’t I stuff envelopes or something, but it turned out to be fun.

    Now you are probably wondering why I titled this thread the way I did. OK, if I have not convinced you to volunteer yet then you might want to read this.

    I extracted the following quote from this article>

    “Although large numbers of white Democrats and independents have told
    pollsters that the race of a candidate is not a factor in how they will
    decide their vote, there is ample evidence that they are not telling the
    truth--either to pollsters or, in many cases perhaps no less
    importantly, to themselves. Andrew Hacker, a political scientist at Queen's College, New York, has written strikingly on this subject, starting with the phenomenon known as the ‘Bradley Effect’.

    The term refers to Tom Bradley, a former black mayor of Los Angeles, who
    lost his 1982 bid to become governor of California, even though every
    poll in the state showed him leading his white opponent by substantial
    margins. Similar results appeared in 1989, when David Dinkins ran for
    mayor of New York City and Douglas Wilder sought election as governor of
    Virginia. Dinkins was ahead by 18 percentage points, but won by only
    two, and Wilder was leading by nine points, but squeaked through by only
    half a percent. Numerous other examples lead Hacker to offer this advice
    to Obama campaign offices: always subtract 7 percent from
    favorable poll results. That's the potential Bradley effect.”
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 11, 2008 7:49 PM GMT
    I am going down to Ohio next weekend to canvass for Obama. But recent polls show Obama leading in both sexes and all age groups, including those over 65. While the Bradley effect is a possibility we have had contests in all 50 states in which we have seen the Bradley effect diminished to within statistical error.

    But still, you can make phone calls from your own home. Do it and take ownership in this election.