Imperial College study: Michigan Governor Whitmer stay-home orders saved lives, perhaps tens of thousands

  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 16, 2020 4:58 AM GMT
    British study: Whitmer stay-home orders saved lives, perhaps tens of thousands

    Researchers at Imperial College London and Oxford University tracked the effectiveness of non-pharmaceutical interventions against the novel coronavirus, such as stay-at-home orders, by tracking how mobility decreased after governors declared states of emergency in each state.

    They tracked mobility, using Google, because people who spend less time in public spaces are less likely to be exposed to the disease.

    The researchers found that states that were more successful at keeping people at home were also more successful at reducing the spread of COVID-19. And mobility decreased more in Michigan under Gov. Gretchen Whitmer's stay-home orders than in any other Great Lakes states — or most states in the United States, according to the study.

    Investigators used the number of deaths from COVID-19 to calculate the rate at which the virus was being spread, starting after the first 10 deaths in each state. This "reproduction" rate represented the average number of people being infected by each person sick with COVID-19.

    In Michigan, as of about March 12 — before restaurants, businesses and schools were closed and prior to Whitmer's stay-at-home orders — each person with COVID-19 was spreading the virus to about 3.5 other people, the study found.

    By mid-May, after mobility was reduced by Whitmer's measures, the state's reproduction number had fallen to 1, meaning sick individuals were spreading the disease to just one other person on average.

    Seth Flaxman, one of the study's investigators and a senior lecturer in mathematics at Imperial College London, wouldn't estimate how many lives have been saved so far by keeping Michigan residents out of public spaces. But a back-of-the-envelope calculation suggested an astounding number if nothing were done to curb the spread, he said.
  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 16, 2020 4:59 AM GMT
    Full Study:

    State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States
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    Oct 16, 2020 1:45 PM GMT
    Propagandists for tyranny and fear evidently need to “pull a rabbit out of a hat“ at this point, so they cite a Covid study dated May 2020...over four (4) months ago.

    Paraphrased conclusion: If prisoners are let out of their cells during a pandemic, transmission of the virus among them is likely to increase.

    The world has moved on in its knowledge of the Wuhan Virus and the most rational responses to it.

    Lockdowns, “masks,” and other fascist dictates are increasingly being discredited all around the world.

    The idea that this study reflects credit on the current situation in Gretchen Whitmer’s lockdown paradise of Michigan is a stretch even for the OP.

    The number of new cases of the virus in Michigan has been increasing since the middle of June.

    And then there’s the statistic which most people see as definitive:

    Covid Deaths per One Million Population

    Gretchen Whitmer’s lockdown paradise of Michigan - 731.2 and rising

    United Kingdom - 649.78

    Sweden - 580.37 and stable

    Fortunately, Gestapo Gretchen recently received four (4) game-changing smack downs to her dictatorship from the Supreme Court of Michigan.

    Perhaps these British researchers should spend more time analyzing Covid data on their own side of the pond.
  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 16, 2020 2:26 PM GMT
    Oddly Jockjoy believes that proving that Michigan did poorly disproves that it would have done worse had it not stopped the early and wild spread of the virus.

    While his Swedish hero Andres Tegnell explains that Sweden did poorly because it was hit hard early, he ignores that Michigan was hit 2x harder - early.

    Furthermore, Michigan's population is 2x more urban than Sweden's. What next, comparing NYC to South Dakota? (Oh, yup, we've seen that from the covidiots).

    Lastly, Sweden has a low incidence of multi-generational housing. Young adults don't live with their parents. The elderly don't live with their adult children and their families. This smaller cell structure limits the spread of the virus in homes and makes it easier to protect the more vulnerable population.

    Sweden should have done a lot better than Michigan. It barely did.
    It could have done as well as its neighbors, but has 12x as many per capita deaths as Norway.
    And this is the model Jockjoy wants everyone to follow?

    "Why Americans Should Adopt The Sweden Model On Covid-19"

    Contemplate that cognitive dissonance. On one hand he's critical of how bad Michigan has done, yet on the other hand he wants everyone to do as badly as Sweden did (not as good as Norway did), when Sweden severely underperformed and did almost as bad as Michigan which it should have done much batter than.

    At this point it's rather clear that Jockjoy can't think for himself and just parrots and barks what his fearless leader tells him to.

    He's critical of Whitmer's "tyranny" - that is "endlessly" extending a state of emergency for a few weeks every few weeks. But he gives a pass to South Dakota's governor who already in March (when they barely had any cases) declared a state of emergency till the end of the year. He lies that SD's governor only issued one Executive Order - even after I posted links to the SD government website disproving that. Never mind that this is qualitative, not quantitative. He gloats that the Michigan Supreme Court struck down the governor's executive orders (as if proving them unconstitutional, tyrannical, criminal, etc) but in reality it ruled a 1945 law (passed by the legislature and signed by a Republican governor) unconstitutional. Yet until that ruling, it was the law of the land - court rulings are not retroactive.

    Jockjoy doesn't understand the situation or even his own argument. He just thinks that by calling a Democratic governor (with a 70% approval rating) a "tyrant" and comparing her to hitler he somehow "wins" - even if that causes thousands of unnecessary deaths (including in the elderly population he previously pretended to care about - until he finally comprehended that Florida had a higher percentage of deaths in nursing homes than Michigan).

    He is so drunk on the kool aid that he has lost track that the base of his argument is against "lockdown". Thus what he's trying to show is that Michigan with a lockdown did no better than Sweden (fail) or Florida (fail). To "prove" this, he cooks the number by ignoring trends and granularity, focusing only on the cumulative numbers, because Michigan was hit early and hard and did poorly in the first 3 months of the pandemic.

    Thus it is ironic that Jockjoy complains that this Imperial College study, from June, is dated.
    Ignoring that since then Michigan has done fairly well - unlike FL, TX and AZ.

    Let's compare data since June, since the study:

    Since June 1st, 14x as many people have died in Florida as in Michigan
    More people died in TX in the last week than have died in MI in all of June, July, August and half of September.

    Not because FL and TX didn't go into lockdown, they did, but because it was too short and they opened too quickly.
    Think how much better FL & TX could have done had they not rushed the reopening by 2-3 weeks.
    Think how much worse FL & TX would have done had they not at all gone into lockdown at all.

    That's the scenario where, nationally, 2-3 million people die.
    And this is what Jockjoy is advocating, if he realizes it or not.
  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 16, 2020 2:29 PM GMT
    Jockjoy> game-changing smack downs to her dictatorship from the Supreme Court of Michigan

    A "game-changer" to help the virus spread.
    In just two weeks since, cases have doubled.

    9/29: 898 new cases
    10/15: 2030 new cases

    You happy now?

    Then this agent of death is going to gloat how Michigan's numbers are worse.

    The irony is that the virus is now spreading in the west and north of the state - Trump territory.
    Jockjoy's policy is literally going to kill scores of Trump voters just before the election.
  • Cumminsguy2

    Posts: 90

    Oct 16, 2020 5:03 PM GMT
    [quote][cite]mwolverine ...
    Jockjoy's policy is literally going to kill scores of Trump voters just before the election.

    A self solving problem!
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 16, 2020 6:34 PM GMT
    Cumminsguy2 said[quote][cite]mwolverine ...
    Jockjoy's policy is literally going to kill scores of Trump voters just before the election.

    A self solving problem![/quote]
  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 17, 2020 12:27 AM GMT
    Cumminsguy2> A self solving problem!

    Not quickly enough.

    Seriously, though, that's another point of irony.
    Public health is about protecting the public. All of it.
    Everyone - including the covidiots.

    While the covidiots are like alcoholics who think they have the "freedum" to drink and drive.
    They endanger not only themselves, but everyone - the entire public.

    There are clear and obvious reasons why Sweden and Norway - two similar societies - didn't have similar outcomes.
    20x as many deaths (12x per capita) in Sweden since March.

    There are clear and obvious reasons why Florida had 14x (which is 7x per capita) as many deaths as Michigan from Jun-Sep.
    Why Texas had more deaths in one week than Michigan had in 3.5 months (15 weeks, so about 5x per capita).
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 17, 2020 3:30 PM GMT
    So when is RJ policy going to take effect to take these post down...ah but is a joke right what is considered questionable or not - censorship at RJ has arrived but what exactly is considered the old days of journalist- 3 independent verifiable sources are need to confirm a story.

    RealJock forum posts are deleted if questionable sources are utilized
  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 18, 2020 4:38 AM GMT
    The Detroit News is going on 150 years old and is considered a reliable source.
    Furthermore I provided the link to the original Imperial College publication (the primary source).

    Please be the better you want to see on RJ.
  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 19, 2020 4:34 PM GMT
    Indeed, all we have to do to see the validity of this study is to compare MI to FL and TX:

    Since June 1st, 9x as many people died in Florida as in Michigan;
    More people died in Texas in one week than died in Michigan in all of June, July, August and half of September.

    Let me add that MI, despite being #12 in the USA in per capita testing, is #39 in per capita cases (in a very tight group of 6, just a hair away from being #44).
  • Posted by a hidden member.
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    Oct 20, 2020 5:24 PM GMT
    NEDC12 said
    Cumminsguy2 said[quote][cite]mwolverine ...
    Jockjoy's policy is literally going to kill scores of Trump voters just before the election.

    A self solving problem!

    Inside every "liberal" is a totalitarian wishing death on opponents. The states with lockdowns, mask mandates, and fascist-dictator Democrat governors (e.g., New York, New Jersey, Michigan, Delaware (sucks), Pennsylvania) have the highest Covid death rates as well as destruction of economies and liberties. Mentally disordered "liberals" blame President Trump and his supporters. All the more reason to celebrate President Trump's reelection.
  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 20, 2020 11:29 PM GMT
    JJ> Inside every "liberal" is a totalitarian wishing death on opponents.

    Unlike you, who wishes death on everyone?
    Have you not even noticed that your "opponents" are trying to reduce deaths across the board?
    NEDC12 was simply noting the self-goal as your policies are now killing your supporters.

    It's hilarious that useless idiots sweep Sweden's poor early performance under the carpet and tout that it's done better later, but they don't give that leeway to Michigan and the NE states. In reality, MI saw its cases rise 2x faster than Sweden and I suspect the NE was initially hit even harder and faster.

    Even funnier is that for months Jockjoy's sole barometer was a cumulative Deaths Per Million.
    Given their poor performances (not initially but since June), both AZ and FL now have done worse than MI - by his own sole criteria.

    Internationally, Sweden has 12x as many DPM as neighboring Norway - and Sweden's economy has suffered more than Norway's.
    There are now more restrictions in Sweden than in Norway.

    By my calculations, had Michigan followed in the footsteps of AZ, FL and TX, just since June it would have had between 5,000 to 6,000 more deaths. That's not even analyzing higher deaths in April and May.

    Comparing performance in the first 3 months (Feb-Apr) and the 2nd 3 months (May-Jul):

    Data from Jun, Jul, Aug & Sep shows that AZ/FL/TX had 4-5x as many Deaths Per Million/Capita:

  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 24, 2020 4:00 PM GMT
    Since the Supreme Court ruling (supported by only 43% of Michiganders), Michigan has jumped from a 3 week average of 739 cases per day to 1,349. An 83% increase.

    Hospitalizations have shot up from 496 to 1,056, a 213% increase.

    Deaths have just started to rise, too. The 7-day average before the ruling was 11.4.
    In the last 7 days, already up to 22.9 - double.

    Recall that most of these cases and deaths are in the west and north regions of the state - Trump territory.

    Now we see that Sweden itself is saying that their restrictions saved lives, too:

    Swedish Public Health Agency analyst Lisa Brouwers says the agency's data showed that the stricter recommendations for the elderly and at-risk had likely saved around 1,000 lives

    Had they been imposed a little earlier, they might have saved another 1,000 lives.
    Sweden's "strange bedfellows" (as Tegnell dismisses people of Jockjoy's ilk) blindly claim Sweden had no restrictions.

    Those restrictions have now been extended to the entire population as Sweden has realized you can't isolate the 20-30% of the population which is at higher risk if you let the virus run rampant throughout the rest of the population.

  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 25, 2020 7:29 PM GMT
    Cases in MI again skyrocketed yesterday, now 3x higher than what they were before the ruling.

    At Least 130,000 Covid-19 Deaths Were Avoidable, Trump Administration An ‘Abject Failure’
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    Oct 26, 2020 5:40 AM GMT
  • mwolverine

    Posts: 7476

    Oct 26, 2020 8:29 AM GMT
    Back to that nonsense JJ?

    Did you forget that your own sources indicated that in MI only 32% of deaths were in nursing homes but in FL it was 45%?

    Did you forget that you have yet to show that deaths in MI nursing homes came after rather than before that?
    Recall that most deaths in MI (and the northeast) were in March & April.
    While in Florida they were in Jun-Sep.

    Did you forget that you celebrated the termination of executive orders in MI that protected nursing homes?

    Tell me, are you incapable of thinking for yourself and discussing issues rather than spamming nonsense like a useless idiot?